Lakers vs. Thunder Western Semifinals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 11

Lakers vs. Thunder Game Info

• Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
• Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena -- Los Angeles, California
• Coverage: Amazon Prime Video

The Los Angeles Lakers are big 12.5-point underdogs in a decisive Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Crypto.com Arena on Monday, starting at 10:30 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video. The Thunder are ahead 3-0 in the series. The matchup has an over/under of 214.5 points.

Lakers vs. Thunder Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Lakers vs. Thunder Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction:

Lakers vs. Thunder Betting Trends

• The Thunder are 39-42-1 against the spread this season.
• The Lakers have played 82 games, with 45 wins against the spread.
• Games involving the Thunder have hit the over 45 times this season.
• Lakers games this season have eclipsed the over/under 43 times in 82 opportunities (52.4%).
• Against the spread, Oklahoma City has fared worse at home, covering 19 times in 42 home games, and 20 times in 40 road games.
• The Thunder have gone over the total less often at home, hitting the over in 22 of 42 home matchups (52.4%). On the road, they have hit the over in 23 of 40 games (57.5%).
• This year, Los Angeles is 24-16-1 at home against the spread (.585 winning percentage). On the road, it is 21-20-0 ATS (.512).
• Looking at the over/under, Lakers games have gone over more often at home (23 of 41, 56.1%) than away (20 of 41, 48.8%).

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.1 points, 6.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds.
• Chet Holmgren is averaging 17.1 points, 8.9 boards and 1.7 assists. At the other end, he averages 0.6 steals and 1.9 blocked shots (second in league).
• Cason Wallace is averaging 8.6 points, 2.6 assists and 3.1 boards.
• Ajay Mitchell's numbers on the season are 13.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists per contest, shooting 48.5% from the floor and 34.7% from downtown, with an average of 1.1 made 3-pointers.
• Isaiah Hartenstein's numbers on the season are 9.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, shooting 62.2% from the floor.

Lakers Leaders

• Per game, LeBron James provides the Lakers 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists. He also averages 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks.
• The Lakers are receiving 23.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game from Austin Reaves.
• The Lakers receive 12.5 points per game from Deandre Ayton, plus 8 boards and 0.8 assists.
• The Lakers are receiving 8.2 points, 4 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game from Jake LaRavia.
• Rui Hachimura averages 11.5 points, 3.3 rebounds and 0.8 assists. He is sinking 51.4% of his shots from the floor and 44.3% from 3-point range (fifth in league), with 1.7 triples per contest.

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