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CasinoJust A Touch: Kentucky Derby Horse Odds, History and Prediction
The 150th Kentucky Derby is nearly here, and the field of 20 three-year-old horses is set.
Just A Touch finished in the top 10 in qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with 75 points.
Just A Touch Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Position
Just A Touch's Kentucky Derby morning line odds are 10-1 (+1000), tied for fourth-best in the field.
Just A Touch drew post position 8.
Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | ML Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | Danny Gargan | Luis Saez | 20-1 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | Chad Brown | Tyler Gaffalione | 3-1 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | Kenny McPeek | Brian Hernandez | 20-1 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat | 8-1 |
| 5 | Catalytic | Saffie Joseph, Jr. | Jose Ortiz | 30-1 |
| 6 | Just Steel | D. Wayne Lukas | Keith Asmussen | 20-1 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | Whit Beckman | Ben Curtis | 20-1 |
Just A Touch Horse Trainer and Jockey
Trainer Brad Cox also has Catching Freedom (8-1) in the field for this year's Kentucky Derby and is looking to add a second Kentucky Derby win (Mandaloun after disqualification in 2021). Further, Essential Quality finished third in 2021 and won the Belmont Stakes; Angel of Empire was third at last year's Derby.
Jockey Florent Geroux rode Mandaloun to the delayed 2021 Derby victory and Gun Runner to a third in 2016. Geroux has ridden Just A Touch in all three of his career starts.
Just A Touch Race History
Just A Touch has only three races and one win -- but two outputs over 100 in terms of Speed Score.
Speed Scores via Equibase.
Date | Track | Race | Finish | Speed Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/6/2024 | Keeneland | Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) | 2 | 105 |
| 3/2/2024 | Aqueduct | Gotham Stakes (Gr. 3) | 2 | 95 |
| 1/27/2024 | Fair Grounds | Maiden Special Weight | 1 | 100 |
Just A Touch Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick
Just A Touch finished runner-up in two prep races despite good Speed Score outputs.
An average Speed Score of 100.0 is tops in the field among 18 qualified horses, and a 105 max Speed Score ranks sixth in that sample.
The jockey and trainer combo is a proven one, and the potential is there for Just A Touch.
Post position 8 has a 9.7% win rate since 1930, the 4th-highest rate of any post in that span. There's also been a 20.4% in-the-money rate: 8th-highest.
Watch FanDuel TV's Kyle Levy analyze Just A Touch below:
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