Home Run Predictions Today: What Are the Top Home Run Picks for Wednesday?

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jonathan Aranda (+320)
• Sal Stewart (+310)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. (+420)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Jonathan Aranda to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Rays at Rockies, 3:11 p.m. ET

I backed Jonathan Aranda at Coors on Monday, and it didn’t come off despite him having a big game. I’m going back to Aranda for his afternoon series finale against the Colorado Rockies.

While he hasn’t gone deep yet this series, Aranda is enjoying his time at Coors, going 5 for 11 over two games with three runs scored and five RBI. He’s absolutely raking in Denver, and he can keep it going versus Tomoyuki Sugano.

The Rockies’ RHP is allowing 2.05 jacks per nine to left-handed hitters along with a .379 wOBA, 44.8% hard-hit rate and 43.0% fly-ball rate in the split.

Aranda owns a .378 wOBA versus righties and has hit 13 of his 14 bombs with the platoon advantage. This is a great spot for him to leave the yard.

Sal Stewart to Hit a Home Run (+310)

A’s at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

Sal Stewart is having a stellar rookie campaign, and he’s been especially strong against LHPs, which makes a home date with Jacob Lopez a friendly HR spot for Stewart.

With the platoon advantage in 2026, Stewart has amassed a .393 wOBA and 55.6% hard-hit rate. At home versus southpaws, Stewart has popped three homers in just 65 plate appearances.

Lopez flashed swing-and-miss stuff a year ago. He’s taken a step back this season, struggling to a 5.32 SIERA and 18.7% strikeout rate. Righty hitters have tagged him for a .386 wOBA and 1.82 dingers per nine.

Once Lopez is out of the game, Stewart will take his hacks against an A’s bullpen that has given up the second-most HRs per nine.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Padres at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

When the San Diego Padres‘ offense is clicking, they can be tough on left-handers. We saw that last night as they scored seven runs on Eduardo Rodriguez, and I think they’ll make life difficult today for Mitch Bratt.

Bratt put up really strong minor-league numbers last season. It hasn’t carried over to The Show this year as he’s got a 6.59 SIERA and 12.2% K rate through 20.0 innings. He’s allowed 1.74 home runs per nine, with righties recording a 52.3% fly-ball rate against him over a small sample.

Enter Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Padres’ star has a .352 expected wOBA. Despite only eight homers, most of his under-the-hood numbers check out, and his power output is being bogged down by a career-worst 7.9% homer-to-fly-ball rate — which is well off his career clip mark of 20.9%. He should see an uptick in bombs at some point, and with a .379 wOBA against left-handers, Tatis’ HR odds for this date with Bratt catch my eye.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.