Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Props for Monday, August 3, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Teoscar Hernandez +470
• Yordan Alvarez +290
• Jonathan Aranda +400

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Dodgers at Cubs, 8:06 p.m. ET

Although Teoscar Hernandez is having a pedestrian season by his standards, he’s still very good versus southpaws, and he’s on my HR radar in a date with Matthew Boyd.

Hernandez has put up a .350 wOBA on the season, and he’s seeing the ball well right now, popping two homers over his past four games.

Boyd can still miss bats, but his strikeout rate drops to 20.7% against right-handed hitters. He’s also surrendered a 40.8% fly-ball rate in the split and has allowed way more bombs at Wrigley (1.45 per nine) than he has on the road (0.26).

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+290)

Blue Jays at Astros, 8:11 p.m. ET

Shane Bieber is struggling, and that puts Yordan Alvarez in a great spot.

Bieber has an ugly 5.48 SIERA and 15.6% strikeout rate through his first 31.1 innings this season. He’s allowing 2.01 homers per nine innings and just permitted four earned runs in 0.2 innings in his most recent outing.

Yordan is the runaway AL MVP favorite and has posted some truly gaudy numbers, including a .478 wOBA, 54.3% hard-hit rate and 49.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.

These are short odds, but Alvarez is worth a look today in the HR market.

Jonathan Aranda to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Rays at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Jonathan Aranda checks a lot of boxes today.

He gets a big park-factor boost at Coors, and he draws a fantastic matchup against RHP Michael Lorenzen, the owner of a 4.76 SIERA. Lorenzen has given up a .431 wOBA and 2.01 dingers per nine to lefty bats.

Aranda has generated a .373 wOBA with the platoon advantage, and 13 of his 14 bombs have come in this split. While he’s been in a bit of a funk of late, Arnada is in a great spot to snap out of it tonight versus a meh right-hander at Coors.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.