Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 4/30/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Gunnar Henderson +490
• Juan Soto +300
• Daulton Varsho +520

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets, Props and Picks for Today

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Astros at Orioles, 12:36 p.m. ET

We've got a lot of day baseball today, and this is my favorite HR prop for Thursday.

Gunnar Henderson has a Camden Yards date with Peter Lambert, a meh righty. The owner of a career 4.91 SIERA, Lambert has struggled massively with lefty bats in his career, surrendering a .389 wOBA and 1.50 dingers per nine in the split.

Meanwhile, this is the absolute peak split for Henderson. He put up a .373 wOBA against right-handers in 2025, including a .394 wOBA and 43.6% hard-hit rate at home versus RHPs.

Henderson already has nine bombs on the season, and he can add to that tally today in Game 1 of the doubleheader.

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Nationals at Mets, 1:11 p.m. ET

Juan Soto versus Miles Mikolas? Sign me up.

Mikolas appeared to be running on fumes in 2025, and it's been no different so far this campaign. He owns a 4.83 SIERA since the start of last season. He gave up 2.13 homers per nine a year ago and is at 3.86 jacks per nine in this year's small sample.

Soto is doing Soto things in 2026, posting a gaudy .453 expected wOBA and 48.9% hard-hit rate. He nuked righties last year to the tune of a .416 wOBA, and he's homered in each of the first two games of this series.

Once Mikolas is out of the game, Soto will see a Washington Nationals bullpen that ranks second-worst in reliever xFIP.

Daulton Varsho to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Blue Jays at Twins, 7:41 p.m. ET

Bailey Ober allows a lot of fly balls, and that puts the Toronto Blue Jays on my radar.

Ober has always been a fly-ball pitcher, sporting a career 49.4% fly-ball rate. That sometimes results in a gopher-ball problem, which was the case in 2025 as he permitted 1.85 home runs per nine -- including 2.00 to lefty hitters.

Enter Daulton Varsho.

Varsho had a 54.7% fly-ball rate last season, so he needs no help getting the ball in the air. He finished 2025 with a .355 wOBA and 58.0% fly-ball rate versus RHPs. Ober is a super friendly matchup for him, and it certainly doesn't hurt that the wind is blowing out to right today in Minny.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.