Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday, May 29, 2026 | FanDuel Research
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Home Run Prop Bets · Friday May 29, 2026
Home Run Predictions Today
Friday's MLB slate features three of the biggest power threats in the game in favorable matchups. Here are the best home run prop bets available at FanDuel Sportsbook today, with full odds analysis for every pick.
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Friday's MLB card is headlined by two elite power matchups. The New York Yankees travel to Sacramento to face the Athletics at Sutter Health Park in a 9:40 PM ET first pitch that puts two of the hottest home run bats in baseball — Ben Rice and Aaron Judge — against Luis Severino, a right-hander with a well-documented long ball problem against his former club. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves visit Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for a 6:40 PM ET matchup where the offensive environment and pitching matchup align perfectly for another Mike Yastrzemski dinger.
Below is the full analysis for each pick, using 2026 stats, park factors, pitcher-vs.-batter history, and the latest home run odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.
1
Pick 1 · Yankees @ Athletics · 9:40 PM ET
New York Yankees · 1B/DH
Ben Rice
To Hit a Home Run · vs. Luis Severino (ATH)
FanDuel Odds
+310
16
2026 HRs
.290
AVG
.623
SLG
18.5%
Barrel %
Why Ben Rice at +310?
Ben Rice has emerged as one of the best offensive players in baseball in 2026. The 27-year-old Yankees first baseman is slashing .290/.385/.623 with 16 home runs and 37 RBI across 184 plate appearances — a pace that has him among the AL leaders in home runs. He has hit three home runs in his last five games and is operating with an 18.5 barrel rate that rank among the very best in MLB according to Baseball Savant.
The matchup against Luis Severino is central to the case. Severino enters Friday at 2-5 with a 4.23 ERA and a well-documented home run problem. He allowed four hits and five walks against the Yankees specifically in their April meeting, giving up two runs in the first inning alone. The Yankees lineup — with Rice, Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. — is set up to attack Severino's slider when he misses arm-side, and Rice in particular obliterates right-handed pitching. He holds a .437 slugging percentage versus righties this season with a home run rate nearly double his rate against left-handers.
Sutter Health Park is a moderate-to-hitter-friendly environment that does not suppress home run rates the way pitcher-friendly venues do. At +310, the market is offering solid value on one of the hottest bats in baseball against a pitcher with a clear and documented vulnerability against power left-handed hitters. This is one of the cleanest home run spots on Friday's entire slate. Check the latest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Aaron Judge is the most dangerous home run threat in baseball history on a per-at-bat basis, and on Friday he faces one of the most favorable individual matchups of his season. The three-time AL MVP carries 17 home runs on the year with a barrel rate of 22.4 percent and an average exit velocity of 94.2 mph — metrics that rank in the top one percent of MLB hitters according to Baseball Savant. His hard hit rate of 57.5 percent means more than half of every ball he puts in play qualifies as hard contact.
The case against Severino is straightforward. Severino has allowed an above-average home run rate throughout his career against right-handed power, and Judge is the prototypical threat his slider was designed to fail against. When Judge turns on a Severino fastball on the inner half, the outcome almost always involves a long ball or deep extra-base hit. In Severino's career against the Yankees lineup, he has been especially vulnerable to Judge, who has historically feasted on high-velocity right-handers who rely on the fastball as their primary weapon.
The +340 number is attractive for a player with Judge's combination of raw power and contact quality. The Yankees have the second-best team slugging percentage in the majors at .437, and Judge sits at the center of that production. With Carlos Rodon working the opposite end of the Yankees battery on Friday, Judge himself is in a prime lineup slot — typically hitting third or fourth — with maximum RBI opportunities that will keep him in favorable situations throughout the game. Get the latest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The value pick on Friday's slate is Mike Yastrzemski at +480 in Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park has long been one of the most home run-friendly venues in Major League Baseball, and the pitching matchup makes it even better. Yastrzemski, the 35-year-old Braves outfielder and grandson of Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski, has been in hot form recently — hitting safely in four of his past five games with four extra-base hits and six RBI in that stretch. His 52 percent fly ball rate in May ranks second on the Braves roster and reflects an elite ball-in-the-air profile tailor-made for home run props.
The pitcher he faces, Chris Paddack, has been one of the most home run-susceptible starters in baseball in 2026. Paddack carries a 7.63 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and has allowed multiple home runs in several starts this season. At Great American Ball Park specifically, where he has posted a 12.67 ERA, the results have been catastrophic. His 1.3 home runs per nine innings rate reflects a pitcher who leaves the ball over the plate at an above-average frequency — and Yastrzemski has been here before, hitting three career home runs against Paddack across 25 plate appearances.
The +480 line represents genuine value for a left-handed hitter with a 52 percent fly ball rate, a proven track record against this specific pitcher, and the benefit of playing in the most HR-friendly park on Friday's schedule. The Braves at 38-19 are the best team in the NL, giving Yastrzemski one of the most potent supporting casts in baseball to keep the lineup moving around him. For the latest home run prop odds on all Friday matchups, visit FanDuel Sportsbook.
All three picks today are built around the same core principle: quality contact profiles facing pitchers with documented home run vulnerabilities in favorable hitting environments. Rice and Judge against Severino at Sutter Health Park represent the two best risk-reward home run spots of the day. Yastrzemski at +480 in Cincinnati is the value play with strong historical precedent against this specific pitcher.
For the complete list of MLB home run prop odds on today's full slate, visit FanDuel Sportsbook. Always check the latest lines before placing, as odds can shift with late lineup news and weather conditions at each ballpark. Bet responsibly.
A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount, a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).
What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?
FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.
Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?
Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.
What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?
Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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