French Open Women's Semifinals Betting Picks: Thursday 6/6/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
French Open Women's Semifinals Betting Picks: Thursday 6/6/24

The tennis clay season concludes with the French Open -- otherwise known as Roland-Garros -- bringing us the second Grand Slam of 2024.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the French Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find betting value in the women's semifinals on Thursday.

French Open Best Bets

Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff

Under 18.5 Games (-108)

It seems a little insane to see such lopsided odds in this battle between two players ranked in the top three, but it really isn't when we're talking about Iga Swiatek on clay. Swiatek is a -720 favorite over Coco Gauff and is even priced at -230 to win in straight sets.

Ever since Swiatek survived a nailbiter against Naomi Osaka in the second round, she's breezed through her next three matches, defeating Maria Bouzkova 6-4, 6-2, then Anastasia Potapova 6-0, 6-0, and finally Marketa Vondrousova 6-0, 6-2. Keep in mind that Vondrousova is the world No. 6 and the 2023 Wimbledon champion.

Swiatek is now 19-1 on clay this season and has won 17 in a row. She's on a 19-match win streak at the French Open, as well.

Perhaps Coco will put up a better fight than the odds suggest, but she hasn't had any answers for Iga yet in her young career. Gauff is just 1-10 lifetime versus Swiatek, and that includes going 0-4 in clay matches. All 10 of those losses have been in straight sets, too.

Massey Ratings projects an 86.0% win probability for Swiatek, which lines up with her 87.8% implied probability as a -720 favorite.

It's hard to find value in this matchup, but the under looks like the spot to target. Outside of that Osaka match, Swiatek's other four wins here have all gone under 18.5 games. In her head-to-head with Gauff, 8 of their 11 matches have also gone under 18.5 games.

Jasmine Paolini vs. Mirra Andreeva

Andreeva -1.5 Games (-122)

We witnessed a pair of shocking upsets on Wednesday, with both Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka going down as heavy favorites. Now, one of either Jasmine Paolini or Mirra Andreeva will advance to their first-ever Grand Slam final.

Given that neither of these players was expected to advance this far, it's a little tricky to predict how this match will shake out -- but I'm more inclined to back Andreeva, a 17-year-old teenage phenom who could be reaching star status even faster than expected.

The 2023 WTA Newcomer of the Year, this is just Andreeva's fifth Grand Slam, yet this French Open already marks the third time she's advanced to the round of 16 at a major -- and far better in this case -- and she's already proven to be a menace against top-tier competition. This includes going three sets against Coco Gauff at her debut Grand Slam (2023 French Open), and more recently, she completely blew away Ons Jabeur 6-0, 6-2 at this year's Australian Open.

Consistency has been an issue overall, as this year's 12-7 record entering the French Open would suggest, but she could be putting it all together at just the right time.

On the other side, Paolini has been a late-bloomer of sorts at age 28, coming into the tournament ranked 15th and earning a career-best 12th ranking in May. She made the round of 16 earlier this year at the Australian Open, which was her best career Grand Slam result before these semifinals in Paris. Entering 2024, she had never gone past the second round of a major, though, so it's fair to wonder whether she has staying power or not.

These two played on clay earlier this season in Madrid, and Andreeva was the victor 7-6(2), 6-4. Additionally, if we look at Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Andreeva is ranked 13th when accounting for clay, compared to Paolini ranking 21st.

It's possible the moment becomes too big for Andreeva, which would be completely understandable for someone still lacking experience. But if her high ceiling shines through, she looks like the more likely candidate to advance to the women's final.

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