Golf

Fortinet Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
Fortinet Championship: Best Bets, Daily Fantasy Golf Picks, Course Key Stats, and Win Simulations

The 2023-24 PGA Tour season is here after a very short break.

Viktor Hovland's TOUR Championship win is only a few weeks old, but we're onto the next season for a new fall swing format.

This week, a full field of golfers kick off the PGA Tour season at the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort's North Course in Napa, CA.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Silverado Resort (North) Course Info

  • Par: 72
  • Distance: 7,123 (around 255 yards shorter than the average par 72)
  • Average Fairway Width: 26.7 yards (5th of 86 courses)
  • Average Green Size: 5,400 square feet (small)
  • Green Type: Poa/Bentgrass
  • Stimpmeter: N/A
  • Recent Winning Scores: -16, -19, -21, -17, -14
  • Recent Cut Lines: -2, -3, -5, -2, -3

Silverado Resort (North) Course Key Stats

Best Golfers at Silverado Resort (North)

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds
Fortinet (2022)
Fortinet (2021)
Fortinet (2020)
Fortinet (2019)
Fortinet (2018)
Course SG:T
Course SG:T/Rd
Max Homa$12,000+70011-626024.481.53
Chez Reavie$9,600+7000MC283333322.491.25
Aaron Baddeley$8,400+150003636MC33421.181.18
Brian Stuard$7,000+10000012MC3175320.751.15
Mark Hubbard$9,700+70002116MC13-18.751.34
Cameron Percy$7,300+400002564237-17.601.10
Sahith Theegala$11,800+160064714--17.061.42
View Full Table

Fortinet Championship Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

Golfer
FanDuel Salary
Win%
Top-10%
Top-20%
Made Cut%
Max Homa$12,00011.63%48.02%65.00%89.07%
Sahith Theegala$11,8005.42%31.47%45.92%81.37%
Justin Thomas$11,7003.82%23.68%39.86%78.14%
Cameron Davis$11,5003.92%24.76%40.66%77.82%
Stephan Jaeger$11,4004.01%28.08%44.33%82.96%
Beau Hossler$11,2003.11%21.84%37.88%76.76%
Eric Cole$11,1002.63%24.15%36.37%81.31%
View Full Table

Stephan Jaeger (+2200), Andrew Putnam (+4000), Doug Ghim (+6000), Dylan Wu (+7000), and Luke List (+9000) are appealing options this week based on the sims.

Fortinet Championship Daily Fantasy Golf Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary based on my stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Fortinet Championship DFS Studs

Max Homa ($12,000 | +700)

The favorite and two-time defending champ, Homa is just the best play of the week again. He ranks seventh both in strokes gained: tee to green and putting, and that's a lethal combination in any event, let alone one this weak. The win odds for him in my model are 11.6%, easily the best of the week, as well.

Andrew Putnam ($10,600 | +4000)

Second in approach and 10th in putting is a great combo for single-week upside, which is what we've come to accept from Putnam. His salary is pretty low, and the win simulation model likes him well enough at 40/1, too.

Others to Consider:

  • Stephan Jaeger ($11,400 | +2200)
  • Eric Cole ($11,100 | +3000)
  • Alex Noren ($10,100 | +5500)

Fortinet Championship DFS Mid-Range Plays

Mark Hubbard ($9,700 | +7000)

Hubbard ranks 1st in the field in strokes gained: approach and 31st in putting. He's weak off the tee (118th), but if you exclude the driver, he's the 3rd-best golfer in the field. Hubbard also has finished top-25 here in three of the past four years.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($9,100 | +8000)

Another great iron player (6th) and putter (17th) relative to the field, Bezuidenhout has the right profile to go deep at Silverado. He hasn't played here, which isn't ideal, but that's the biggest knock at this particular setup. For this low of a salary, we can take that and look for the upside.

Others to Consider:

  • Doug Ghim ($9,900 | +6000)
  • Dylan Wu ($9,500 | +7500)
  • Ryan Palmer ($9,200 | +8000)

Fortinet Championship DFS Value Plays

Luke List ($8,800 | +9000)

List ranks 129th in putting and 132nd in around-the-green play but is the best ball-striker in the field over the past 50 rounds, so there's definitely risk -- but also upside. That's shown in his recent finishes at Silverado: 4th, cut, 65th, 51st, and cut. It's been a while since he's teed it up: T35 at the Genesis Scottish Open in mid-July. That's partly why his salary is this low.

David Lipsky ($8,600 | +11000)

Lipsky's got 20th-ranked irons and top-25 accuracy among this field, but the short-game is lacking. He ranks outside the top 90 in both short-game stats. Lipsky has played here twice, finishing T22 and cut. With some of the best irons and win simulation odds of anyone in this salary tier, Lipsky stands out.

Others to Consider:

  • Nate Lashley ($9,000 | +8000)
  • Kyoung-hoon Lee ($8,900 | +8000)
  • Hayden Springer ($7,800 | +30000)

Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.