Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates for Week 12

Whether you're deciding who to start in season-long, who to roster in NFL DFS, or which NFL prop bets to consider on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are still plenty of ways to buy low on players poised to bounce back from disappointing outings.

While looking ahead at the games across the NFL, which running backs should we buy low on ahead of this week?

All fantasy football projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics mentioned are via NextGenStats or Pro Football Focus unless stated otherwise.

Running Backs to Buy Low in Fantasy Football

Quinshon Judkins, Browns

Since a three-touchdown explosion in Week 7, Quinshon Judkins has gone three games in a row without a touchdown as the Cleveland Browns' dreadful offense has hindered his scoring chances.

While Cleveland's offense is likely to continue struggling, especially with rookie fifth-rounder Shedeur Sanders now thrust into action, Judkins' volume is still dang good.

Over the past two games, Judkins has handled 39 total carries and five targets. He's now seen multiple targets in three straight games, something that boosts both his floor and his ceiling.

Judkins -- who is 11th among all RBs in rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.75) -- has a welcoming matchup in Week 12, too, and could be set to bust out.

The Browns will be on the road at the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders have allowed the eighth-most rushing TDs per game to running backs and just gave up 93 rushing yards to Javonte Williams in Week 11. A negative game script is always a worry for Judkins' outlook, but it's not as much of a concern this week as Cleveland is just a 3.0-point 'road dog.

After Vegas, the Browns face the San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears -- all of whom are pretty nice matchups for Judkins. The arrow is pointing up on the Browns' rookie back.

Aaron Jones, Vikings

Aaron Jones has taken over the Minnesota Vikings' backfield.

Over the last two weeks, Jones has out-snapped Jordan Mason 71% to 25% in Week 10 and 67% to 16% in Week 11. In that time, Jones has amassed 25 total carries for 117 rushing yards and a score while adding 12 targets and six catches through the air.

That's a very appealing role, and we know Jones can produce as a pass-catcher, giving him a great floor/ceiling combination.

With 14.4 and 9.6 half-PPR points over the last two games, Jones hasn't yet turned his increased playing time into a big fantasy day, creating a possible buy-low window, but said big outing is coming if he keeps seeing this many touches.

Kyren Williams, Rams

It always feels like Kyren Williams is close to losing his RB1 job on the Los Angeles Rams -- especially when he puts the ball on the ground.

But Williams has played at least 60% of the snaps in every game this year, including at least 68% of the snaps in eight of 10 contests. Williams is the Rams' no-doubt top back, and while he's clearly a valued fantasy commodity, he's been unlucky not to have more touchdowns.

Kyren has six rushing TDs and three receiving scores, so it's not like he's hurting for TDs. He's tied for third among all backs in carries inside the five (11), and he's tied for sixth in carries inside the 10 (18). He's getting good red zone work, but it could be even better.

LA has opted to throw it a ton near the goal-line, especially to Davante Adams, who has recorded a whopping 16 targets inside the 10 -- four more than any other pass-catcher in the NFL. Only one other wideout (Amon-Ra St. Brown) has more than eight targets inside the 10. Matthew Stafford has 11 more red zone pass attempts than any other QB.

Stafford has 22 TDs and no picks on red zone passes this year, and Adams has turned eight of his inside-the-10 targets into TDs. Given the results, no one can knock LA for their goal-line play-calling; it's clearly working.

But it's fair to wonder if the Rams will keep throwing it this much near the end zone as they're a clear outlier across the league right now. Also, opponents may start changing up their defensive plans to stop leaving Adams one on one at the goal-line, potentially pushing LA to run it more.

Whether it's due to opposing defenses or natural regression, the Rams may end up scaling back their goal-line passing at some point, and if that happens, Williams should be the big beneficiary.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.