Fantasy Football: 4 Bold Predictions for NFL Week 5

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Football is one of the most intense, exciting sports on the planet. The source of the now-ubiquitous saying "Any Given Sunday," the NFL is a place where even struggling teams have a chance to topple the best in the league. Anything can happen when you play only 17 regular season games a year.

That uncertainty is a huge driver behind the excitement the NFL generates each and every season. What's more fun than watching something totally unexpected unfold before your eyes?

That's why, this year, we'll be bringing you some bold predictions to watch for in each week the 2025 NFL season.

All NFL betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Bold Predictions for Week 5

Stefon Diggs Totals 15+ Fantasy Points on Sunday Night Football

Stefon Diggs' role has been quite limited with the New England Patriots as he recovers from 2024's torn ACL. After posting snap shares under 60.0% and route rates of 50.0% or less in the first three games, his role finally expanded in Week 4 with a 62.5% snap share and 72.7% route rate (highest among receivers). It led to his best performance of 2025 as Diggs posted six catches for 101 receiving yards on seven targets (13.1 fantasy points).

Could this production keep up against the Buffalo Bills?

Sunday night's opponent brings a stubborn pass defense, carrying the 9th-best schedule-adjusted unit while allowing the 10th-fewest expected points added per dropback (EPA/db) -- via NFL Next Gen Stats. However, Drake Maye has been excellent with 0.22 EPA/db and 0.39 EPA/db over his previous two games. Furthermore, Buffalo likes to disguise safeties often, and Maye touts the fourth-highest passer rating when opponents change their safety shell post-snap. He's shown the ability to excel against disguised zone coverages in 2025, giving me confidence in the Pats' offense.

The Bills also have the ninth-lowest adjusted pressure rank while Pro Football Focus has New England with the seventh-best pass block grade. Rookie offensive tackle Will Campbell is coming into his own by allowing no pressures in two of his last three games.

Ultimately, I have confidence around the Pats moving the ball in Buffalo, giving Diggs more chances to post fantasy points. The Bills are even allowing 6.0 yards per rushing attempt (third-most) while New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson touts an impressive 0.58 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per carry.

If the Patriots are getting to the red zone, Diggs posted a 50.0% red zone target share a week ago. He didn't find the end zone on his two red zone targets, but positive regression should come if this volume keeps up.

I'm banking on Diggs' role to keep expanding as he nears full health, and Maye has looked the part through four games. Diggs should be WR1 of this offense sooner rather than later. Look for Maye to lean on the veteran wideout on Sunday night, leading to at least 15 fantasy points for Diggs. This would smash our forecast of 8.7 fantasy points for half-PPR leagues, per our NFL DFS projections.

Ashton Jeanty Produces Another Top-10 Weekly Finish

After averaging only 6.9 fantasy points per game over the first three games, Ashton Jeanty erupted in Week 4 with 31.5 fantasy points (RB1) thanks to 138 rushing yards, 17 receiving yards, and three total touchdowns. He can keep it going.

While the Indianapolis Colts have rolled to a 3-1 record, the offense is doing most of the heavy lifting as the defense is yielding 5.4 yards per play (13th-most). The Las Vegas Raiders should be able to move the ball. For instance, the Colts allow the 13th-most yards per downfield target, and Geno Smith is totaling 7.5 yards per passing attempt.

The same can be said for the ground game, as Indianapolis is ceding the 6th-highest rush success rate and 4.5 yards per rushing attempt (13th-most). In Week 4, Jeanty had a field day against the Chicago Bears -- who allow the seventh-highest rush success rate.

Backed by the Raiders' 20.5-point implied team total, there should be scoring opportunities on Sunday. Jeanty carries a juicy red zone workload, taking 90.9% of red zone rushing attempts paired with a 26.7% red zone target rate in the passing game. He posted only one touchdown over his first three games, but the positive regression finally came with three touchdowns last week. While multiple touchdowns every game isn't sustainable, Jeanty finding the end zone at least once this week is in the picture considering his workload.

Outside of the red zone, volume isn't a worry for Jeanty as he's reached at least 17 rushing attempts in three of four games. Our projections have Jeanty slated for 16.7 carries in Week 5, and his impressive 3.96 yards after contact per rushing attempt -- fourth-best among RBs with at least 40 carries -- points to more success ahead.

Trevor Lawrence Logs Fewer Than 10 Fantasy Points

Jacksonville Jaguars starting QB Trevor Lawrence is off to an underwhelming start with -0.04 EPA/db, 5.9 yards per passing attempt, and 211.3 passing yards per game. This has led to a poor average of 13.3 fantasy points per game (QB30). Despite that, our projections have Lawrence in line for 15.3 fantasy points against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Kansas City touts the 6th-best adjusted pass D while allowing the 4th-fewest EPA/db, 6.4 yards per passing attempt (13th-fewest), and 185.8 passing yards per game (8th-fewest). Furthermore, KC's defense boasts the 11th-highest pressure rate while sitting in the top half for the most takeaways per game.

Lawrence has dealt with turnover woes as he's thrown four interceptions. PlayerProfiler credits Lawrence with the seventh-most danger plays and second-most interceptable passes. This paired with the Chiefs putting pressure on the quarterback should make for a tough day for Lawrence.

Furthermore, Jacksonville's play-calling will likely lean on the run. The Jags have been far more efficient on the ground with 5.0 yards per carry (6th-highest) paired with the 14th-highest rush-play rate, and the Chiefs surrender the 4th-highest EPA per carry and 15th-highest rush success rate. Lawrence's opportunities through the air may be limited, and his 5.9 yards per passing attempt and average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.3 yards per passing attempt do not suggest many big plays.

Lawrence is my biggest fade among quarterbacks in Week 5. Similar to Lawrence's Week 3's fantasy point total of 8.8, look for the Jags' signal-caller to finish far under his 15.3-point projection in Week 5.

Saquon Barkley Continues to Fall Outside the Top 10 RBs

The 2024 season was one to remember for Saquon Barkley -- especially in fantasy football as he generated 21.2 fantasy points per game (RB1). That production has been lacking through four games as Saquon is posting 13.9 fantasy points per game (RB13). Furthermore, he's finished as RB31 and RB17 over the last two weeks.

Sunday's matchup doesn't get any easier as the Denver Broncos give up only 16.8 points per game (second-fewest) and 4.7 yards per play (eighth-fewest). As one of the best defenses in football, this unit excels in nearly every category. This includes slowing the run by holding opponents to the 6th-fewest EPA per carry, 12th-lowest rush success rate, and 3rd-fewest rushing touchdowns per game. Running backs are totaling the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game against this defense.

Despite the matchup, Barkley is still RB4 in projections and comes at an $8,500 salary in DFS (third-highest). I don't see the value in him for Week 5. He's simply not carrying the same efficiency as a season ago, including -0.51 RYOE per rushing attempt and 2.13 yards after contact per carry -- the latter of which ranks 29th among tailbacks with at least 40 attempts. For reference, Saquon totaled 3.32 yards after contact per carry in the 2024 season.

His inefficiencies paired with facing an elite defense could mean another rough week in fantasy football. Furthermore, Denver is rarely giving up touchdowns. If the Philadelphia Eagles can punch in a rushing TD, I'd rather take my chances on Jalen Hurts and the tush push -- not Barkley.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.