FanDuel MLB DFS Picks and Helper: Sunday 8/11/24

Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and give you a starting point when you're building lineups.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

Today's pitching section has options for the spenders or super-savers. You can play both ways with decent upside today.

Dylan Cease ($11,100) has a gaudy salary ahead of this date with the Miami Marlins, but the Fish's 25.6% strikeout rate against righties over the past 30 days (tied for seventh-highest in MLB) has also come with a 110 wRC+ (12th-best). It's a bit more of a double-edged sword than it was early in the season. I wouldn't blame anyone that paid the premium for Cease's excellent 3.16 expected ERA (xERA) and 32.6% K rate into it, though.

It falls off a cliff behind him, though. Nick Lodolo, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Hunter Brown have brutal matchups in brutal parks. If you're not going to Cease amid the tremendous stacks on the slate, the best course of action might be budget guys.

Marcus Stroman ($7,300) is the first taste of that against a Texas Rangers club with an ugly .634 OPS against righties in the past 30 days. Stroman is a low-whiff pitcher into a team with a 21.0% K rate in those same parameters, though, so rostering him is hoping for a quality start.

The same is probably true for Albert Suarez ($7,200) and his 18.7% K rate. I swear this guy has a cushy matchup every single outing, and today's Tampa Bay Rays are no different. They've plummeted to a .682 OPS and 25.3% strikeout rate in the past 30 days after selling hard at the deadline. I see his "floor" as the highest.

Yet, the best ceiling award in this tier of pitchers definitely goes to David Festa ($7,000). Festa just used favorable wind at Wrigley to post 48 FanDuel points, and he's met or topped six Ks in each of his last four outings. The low-whiff Cleveland Guardians will challenge him on that front, but their .607 OPS vs. RHP in the past month is the opposite of menacing. He's my favorite target of this trio on a day where I'm saving coin in most lineups at pitcher.

Stacks to Target

• Atlanta Braves (5.90 implied team total)
  • This is easily the toughest spot for Atlanta all weekend, and I'm leaning a fade at popularity. Kyle Freeland hasn't surrendered more than three earned at home all season, and the Colorado Rockies' bullpen (4.00 xFIP in last 30 days) has quietly got their act together. I'd be surprised if this up-and-down Bravos attack just crushed it all three games at Coors.
• Houston Astros (5.29)
  • Heavily prefer the 'Stros to the Braves considering they'll draw James Paxton and a far worse bullpen over the past month (4.89 xFIP) in a similar hitting venue. Paxton's flyball splits are atrocious, yet he's surrendered just two dongs with the Red Sox. This is Houston's better split, showing some troubles with RHP recently.
• New York Yankees (5.09)
  • Aaron Judge hasn't homered since August 3rd, so today could be a vintage Bronx Bombers showing against Andrew Heaney. Heaney's 1.15 HR/9 isn't improvement; he's just gotten fortunate to not pay for poor flyball (46.5%) and hard-hit (40.3%) rates thanks to a 9.4% HR:FB ratio. Texas' bullpen (4.76 xFIP in the last 30 days) is right there with Boston's, as well.
• Oakland Athletics (3.88)
  • I feel like oddsmakers have the Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays totals backwards. Chris Bassitt (4.26 xERA) isn't a shutdown arm, and he's been fortunate to post 0.90 HR/9 thanks to a 9.6% HR:FB ratio. Plus, Toronto's got the worst performing bullpen of the ones we've mentioned, per a 5.00 xFIP over the past month of play. If I'm playing Cease, Oakland is the obvious starting point.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.