FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Sunday 4/21/24
Sunday's main slate starts at 1:35 p.m. ET and features 11 games.
Our daily fantasy helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups.
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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.
Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.
MLB DFS Picks
Pitchers to Target
Aaron Nola, Phillies ($10,300)
Aaron Nola hasn't been very good this season, struggling to a 4.39 SIERA and 19.8% strikeout rate. That SIERA would be a career-worst mark. However, Nola has the best matchup you could ask for as he's hosting the Chicago White Sox, the team with the worst wOBA (.255) and ninth-highest K rate (24.4%). Chicago's 2.89 implied total is a slate-low clip.
Nola has a pretty darn good track record and should eventually get going. He ended 2023 with a 3.75 SIERA and 25.5% strikeout rate. While he'll likely be chalk, Nola is easy to love today. Our projections have him totaling a slate-leading 35.8 FanDuel points.
Tanner Bibee, Guardians ($9,000)
Choosing your pitcher in DFS this year might oftentimes come down to picking on the White Sox and Oakland Athletics. Well, we already talked about the guy pitching against the Pale Hose, and Tanner Bibee is a quality option for his date with Oakland.
So far in 2024, Bibee has taken a small step back from his rookie-year numbers, but he's still more than capable of cruising in this matchup. Bibee owns a 20.9% strikeout rate and 11.5% swinging-strike rate -- although he's registered more than four punchouts in only one of four starts.
But as was the case with Nola, some minor 2024 struggles can be mostly overlooked when the matchup is this good. The Athletics sport the third-highest strikeout rate (27.4%) and fourth-worst wOBA (.276). Oakland's 3.30 implied total is the second-lowest of the slate.
Bibee sits second in our projections as we peg him to score 32.2 FanDuel points.
Others to Consider
- Louie Varland ($6,600)
- Varland makes some sense as a salary-saver. While about 95% of it has to do with a matchup against the Detroit Tigers -- an offense ranked 26th in wOBA (.288) with the seventh-highest K rate (24.7%) -- Varland has some appeal on his own. He split time as a starter and reliever in 2023 and struck out 25.1% of hitters. He's gotten up to at least 89 pitches in all three of his 2024 starts and fanned six in each of his last two outings in back-to-back difficult matchups against the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Varland makes some sense as a salary-saver. While about 95% of it has to do with a matchup against the Detroit Tigers -- an offense ranked 26th in wOBA (.288) with the seventh-highest K rate (24.7%) -- Varland has some appeal on his own. He split time as a starter and reliever in 2023 and struck out 25.1% of hitters. He's gotten up to at least 89 pitches in all three of his 2024 starts and fanned six in each of his last two outings in back-to-back difficult matchups against the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Cristian Javier ($8,500)
- Javier is taking on the Washington Nationals, and I think he is a very intriguing option, especially if it looks like he'll slip through the cracks. The Nats have been a little better than expected so far, but they're still an offense we can pick on (.308 wOBA and 22.2% K rate). After a down 2023, Javier hasn't started well this campaign, with his SIERA up at 5.34. But he just racked up a single-game swinging-strike rate of 13.5% against the top-tier Texas Rangers' offense, and I think he's capable of a good outing versus the Nats.
Stacks to Target
Seattle Mariners
It's a Coors slate, and the Seattle Mariners are the squad visiting Coors. They'll be up against Cal Quantrill and are -- in my eyes -- by far the top stacking option on this slate. The implied totals say as much, too; Seattle's 5.69 implied total is a half-run clear of anyone else's.
Quantrill is not good, and I just don't see how his move to the Colorado Rockies will be anything but a nightmare. Whenever he pitches at Coors, the opposing offense is going to be a great stacking option. Quantrill finished 2023 with a 5.50 SIERA and 13.1% strikeout rate. Big yikes. He's got a 12.1% K rate so far this season.
Everyone in Seattle's lineup will be in play. This game is the first of a doubleheader, so we may see some guys get the game off, which could give us some fun value plays. Cal Raleigh ($3,600) and Julio Rodriguez ($3,300) are both top-five bats on this slate, according to our projections. J.P. Crawford ($3,200) is likely to be atop the lineup, and Jorge Polanco ($3,300) is a great play, as well.
Seattle should have a field day and comes at pretty reasonable salaries. The lone negative is that the Mariners will likely be very popular.
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds are at home today versus Jose Soriano, and their 4.67 implied total is the slate's third-highest. Soriano has made four appearances this season, the last two of which have been starts. His numbers are pretty nice, but a road clash at Great American Ball Park against a good Cincy offense is a really difficult spot.
Will Benson ($3,200) and Spencer Steer ($3,400) are a high-upside pairing. Benson has been hitting second versus righties and offers both power and speed, swiping five bags already this season. Steer has been superb, boasting a .438 wOBA, .407 expected wOBA (xwOBA), three homers and four steals. He can do it all.
You know what Elly De La Cruz ($4,300) brings to the table, and Jake Fraley ($3,300) has a .401 wOBA this year against righties, although he may get pulled later in the game if he faces a lefty. Also, don't sleep on Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($2,900). A slow start (.215 wOBA) has seen his salary plummet, but his xwOBA is much higher (.315) than his wOBA. CES put up big-time power numbers in the minors and popped 13 tanks in 241 plate appearances as a rookie last season.
Others to Consider
- Houston Astros
- Houston will tangle with rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker. Parker survived his MLB debut against the Dodgers and now gets Houston in his second outing. Welcome to The Show, kid. The Astros' 5.12 implied total is the slate's second-highest. Don't let a lefty-lefty matchup scare you off of Yordan Alvarez ($3,900) and Kyle Tucker ($3,900).
- Houston will tangle with rookie southpaw Mitchell Parker. Parker survived his MLB debut against the Dodgers and now gets Houston in his second outing. Welcome to The Show, kid. The Astros' 5.12 implied total is the slate's second-highest. Don't let a lefty-lefty matchup scare you off of Yordan Alvarez ($3,900) and Kyle Tucker ($3,900).
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Philly will take on another hurler making his second MLB start, Nick Nastrini. A former Dodgers farmhand, Nastrini posted some big-time K numbers in the minors and did pretty well versus the Kansas City Royals in his debut. But a road game at Citizens Bank Park against Kyle Schwarber ($3,600), Bryce Harper ($3,400) and Trea Turner ($3,700) will be a heck of a test. Philly carries a 4.61 implied total.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.