FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball ALCS Helper: Astros at Rangers, Game 3

Both games have been close in the ALCS, but the Houston Astros find themselves in an 0-2 hole to the Texas Rangers and will now have to win one on the road to avoid the dreaded 0-3 near-death sentence. The series is back in action at 8:03 pm ET tonight.

For those unfamiliar with the single-game daily fantasy baseball format, scoring is identical to its full roster cousin, except you roster only hitters, and lineups consist of five flex spots. The one twist? One of the five roster spots is your designated "MVP," who receives twice his total fantasy points, along with a "STAR" slot that gets 1.5 times the points. Naturally, it's crucial that you choose your MVP and STAR carefully if you want to be at the top of the leaderboards when it's all said and done.

On that note, let's highlight some of the top options for today's FanDuel single-game slate.

Pitching Breakdown

This is a compelling pitching matchup featuring two pitchers who come in with plenty of question marks: Max Scherzer and Cristian Javier.

On paper, the return of Scherzer for the Rangers is a huge boost, and under normal circumstances, this may have sealed the Astros' Championship Series fate.

But Scherzer last pitched on September 12th due to a shoulder issue, so his effectiveness is by no means a sure thing. Additionally, even if he's in peak form, he'll almost certainly be on a pitch count around 75-80 pitches.

Mad Max wasn't quite as dominant in his age-39 campaign, though most pitchers would still happily take his numbers. This season, he pitched to a 4.02 xFIP, 28.0% strikeout rate, and 7.2% walk rate. However, he struggled with home runs, allowing 1.65 per 9 innings, and while an inflated 14.6% HR/FB ratio suggests some poor luck, his sky-high 48.6% fly-ball rate leaves him in danger of coughing up long balls.

In all, Scherzer is a true wild card tonight. In some ways, the same can be said of Javier, though.

While Javier was brilliant in 2022, that was far from the case this year. He regressed pretty much across the board, posting a 5.16 xFIP, 23.1% strikeout rate, and 9.0% walk rate.

And yet from the beginning of September onward, he posted an eye-popping 32.3% strikeout rate over his final six regular-season outings.

That carried over into his ALDS start, where he racked up nine strikeouts over five scoreless innings. However, Javier also issued five walks in that start, and control has often been an issue over his career.

Much like Scherzer, Javier is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, too, so dingers can be a problem. He allowed 1.39 home runs per 9 innings off a 55.6% fly-ball rate this year.

Slate Strategy

This game has hovered between a 9.5 and 9.0 over/under, which reflects the potential issues for both starting pitchers.

Given how unstoppable Yordan Alvarez ($9,000) has been this postseason, it wouldn't be the least bit shocking to see him as the overwhelming chalk at MVP/STAR. The lefty slugger leads all postseason hitters with an absurd 42.9% barrel rate that's led to a league-high six home runs.

Considering Scherzer struggled with the long ball this season and was generally worse overall versus lefties (4.53 xFIP; 25.9% strikeout rate), it wouldn't be shocking to see Alvarez have another productive night.

The one other player who might contend with him in MVP/STAR popularity is Corey Seager ($9,500). While Seager's slugged just one dinger, he's gotten on base in all seven Rangers games thus far, cracking 18 FanDuel points four times. Among the two teams, his 29.4% barrel rate is second-best behind Alvarez, so his second home run shouldn't be far away.

Seager will especially have a great chance of knocking one out versus Javier. Against left-handed bats, the righty put up an ugly 5.58 xFIP and 18.5% strikeout rate this season.

Roster percentages at the multiplier positions could level out a bit after those two.

Adolis Garcia ($8,500) mashed 39 home runs in the regular season and has two in the playoffs, so his MVP/STAR relevance needs little explanation. Javier's more dangerous in same-handed matchups with a 28.6% strikeout rate but still gave up 1.51 bombs per 9 innings off a 62.4% fly-ball rate.

Among the other Rangers, Marcus Semien ($7,500) and Mitch Garver ($5,500) have the fourth- and fifth-best odds to hit a home run behind Garcia, Seager, and Alvarez, per the MLB betting odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Semien is struggling, but he should still be among the more popular MVP/STAR selections as a leadoff man. Garver is an obvious value as the projected number-three hitter, and his power shouldn't be overlooked as a contrarian pick in the multiplier slots.

Evan Carter ($7,000), Jonah Heim ($5,500), and Nathaniel Lowe ($6,000) will all have the platoon advantage versus Javier. Carter has been the hot hand at the plate (.512 wOBA), and while it probably shouldn't continue, he's intriguing if he continues to bat in the heart of the lineup.

Going back to Houston, Kyle Tucker ($8,000) could fly under the radar as he continues to slump in these playoffs; he's just 2-for-22 at the plate. But he posted a .233 ISO in the regular season and is arguably the second-best power hitter on the team. If Scherzer struggles, it might be what Tucker needs to bust out.

Jose Altuve ($7,500) has been quiet at the plate, as well, but much like Semien, he'll get his chances out of the leadoff slot. Alex Bregman ($7,000) has been a bit better and has two home runs in the postseason.

It's worth noting that all of Tucker, Altuve, and Bregman have still been making plenty of hard contact, per Statcast, despite varying degrees of success. They're probably the three to consider most if you want a Houston MVP/STAR not named Alvarez.

As for other notables, Jose Abreu ($6,000) is coming off a three-dinger ALDS, and Michael Brantley ($4,500) is a shoo-in value with the platoon advantage. Jeremy Pena ($5,000) actually leads the team in hard hits (12), so he could be a less obvious way to save salary.

Looking to build some MLB DFS lineups? Check out FanDuel’s daily fantasy baseball lobby to see all the offerings for today’s slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.