Soccer

EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 28: Who Should You Back in the City-Liverpool Showdown?

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 28: Who Should You Back in the City-Liverpool Showdown?

After a week full of Champions League action, the EPL is back for an epic Matchweek 28.

Matchweek 28 runs from Saturday to Monday and features several intriguing matchups, including Tottenham at Aston Villa and Newcastle at Chelsea. The matchweek is highlighted by a critical Sunday showdown between Liverpool and Manchester City, a clash that will have a massive impact on the title race.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 28

Manchester City at Liverpool (11:45 a.m. ET Sunday)

Manchester City Moneyline (+125)

In what might end up being the EPL match of the season, both sides enter this weekend in excellent form. Manchester City are undefeated in their last 18 matches across all competitions, with 16 wins during that stretch. Liverpool has just one loss in their last 18 matches, though it was an impactful defeat to Arsenal, and enter Sunday with six consecutive victories by a combined score of 16-3.

This match also pits the best home team (Liverpool) against the best away team (Manchester City). Liverpool leads the league in expected goal (xG) differential per 90 minutes -- according to FBRef – at home this season (+1.98) while City has the best xG differential/90 on the road (+1.16). Both teams rank inside the top three on xG/90 and xG allowed/90, with Liverpool slightly better on offense and City slightly better on defense.

The one area where City has struggled this season is against other top sides. In six matches against teams currently inside the top five of the table or against teams inside the top five on xGD/90, City have zero wins. Liverpool has fared slightly better in the split, with two wins -- at home vs. Aston Villa and at home vs. Chelsea -- from seven such fixtures.

When these two teams met back in late November, it ended in a 1-1 draw. Kevin De Bruyne was not available for that game, and he was not available for all but one of City’s games against top-five teams this season. De Bruyne is back up to full speed, and I believe he will be the difference in this one. He was rested in City’s Champions League victory on Wednesday and should be a difference maker on Sunday.

Liverpool has also battled injuries this season, with Mohamed Salah missing most of the past two months with a hamstring injury. Liverpool have excelled against lesser opposition while Salah has been out, but versus Arsenal -- their one game against a team on the same level as City -- the Reds struggled tremendously, generating one goal from just 0.4 xG. Salah may be available for this weekend’s clash, but it would be just his third appearance in 2024.

There is not much to separate these two sides -- both are world class. City is on the road, but the presence of De Bruyne and the lack of recent matches for Salah is enough for me to prefer City as slight road favorites at +125.

Tottenham at Aston Villa (9 a.m. ET Sunday)

Over 3.5 Goals (-110)

Sunday morning, before the must-see clash between Liverpool and Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa meet in a match that will have major implications in the race for a top-four spot.

Since the calendar flipped to 2024, both of these teams have been inconsistent. Spurs have three wins, two draws, and a loss. Villa has four wins, two losses, and a draw. Notably for Villa, all four of their wins have come against teams in 12th or worst in the league table, including three victories against teams in 17th or worse. Spurs enter this weekend with just one win in their last six away fixtures while Villa -- after a 10-game unbeaten run at Villa Park to start the season -- have lost two of their last three home fixtures.

The one consistent theme for both teams recently is high-scoring matches. Spurs have scored multiple goals in 10 of their last 11 matches and kept just one clean sheet during that span. Villa’s last nine fixtures are averaging 4.0 goals per match, and there have been over 3.5 goals scored in six of those nine. Spurs’ last nine fixtures are also averaging 4.0 goals per match.

The top forwards for each side enter this clash in good form. Tottenham's Son Heung-min scored in his last game while Villa's Ollie Watkins has five goals across his last three matches and seven in his past six. Villa ranks second in home goals this season (35) while Spurs rank fourth in away goals (26). Richarlison is an injury question mark, and his absence would hurt Tottenham's attack, but in their first game without him, they managed three goals against Crystal Palace.

With just three clean sheets between these two sides across their last 20 fixtures combined, I am taking over 3.5 goals for this matchup.

Player Props

Dominic Solanke to Score (-115): Bournemouth faces Sheffield United this week, and that bodes well for Solanke. The Blades' defensive struggles are well documented. They have kept just one clean sheet this season and are conceding 2.48 goals/90 from 1.99 xG/90. Solanke has cooled off recently, notching just one goals over his last five fixtures, but he still ranks fourth in goals (14) this season and is tied for second in xG (14.8).

Eberechi Eze to Score or Assist (+100): After missing all of February with a hamstring injury, Eze scored a free-kick goal in his first game back last Saturday. Palace has scored at least one goal in six consecutive matches and are home favorites in this one against a Luton side that has surrendered the third-most goals/90 (2.04) and most xG/90 (2.03) this season.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.