College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 11/11/23
With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.
FanDuel now offers college football daily fantasy contests in most states, and there's a twist on the NFL ruleset. You select a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which includes tight ends), and a "SuperFLEX" that can be any of those positions.
Finding target data for pass-catchers in college can be difficult, so figuring out which players are on the field and getting work can make all the difference. Naturally, there are also more lopsided outcomes in college, so balance game scripts appropriately! Your running back's monstrous first half could lead to a bagel in the second.
How should we approach this week's main slate?
Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables are sortable by any category.
Implied Road Total
Implied Home Total
|Miami (FL)||Florida State||-13.5||50.5||18.5||32.0|
Last week slate revolved around two marquee games, but the depth to this weekend's slate is much better.
That still has to start with a projected shootout between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Central Florida Knights in Orlando. There's a 65.5-point total with a field goal spread, and it also doesn't hurt we'll get two of the country's best running backs from it.
The other game with a total north of 60.0 and a tight spread is a second Big 12 showdown. The Texas Tech Red Raiders will visit the Kansas Jayhawks in Lawrence. We'll need some injury news in that one for full clarity on how desirable it truly is.
Though there's a 13.5-point spread in Baton Rouge, the Louisiana State Tigers might be a bit undermanned themselves, inviting a more competitive game with the Florida Gators despite fewer expected points if LSU's QB is indeed out of the lineup.
I really only see two cross-off spots on the entire slate. We sort of know the Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions are going to be a defensive-minded affair, and a slate-low 45.5-point total doesn't ease those concerns. Plus, I don't see a ton of success for a scuffling Kentucky Wildcats offense against a vaunted Alabama Crimson Tide defense that is peaking at the right time.
Attempts Per Game
Rush Yards Per Game
|Michael Penix Jr.||$10,800||WASH||35.9||10.1||1.1|
|Jayden de Laura||$10,400||ARIZ||25.8||6.9||32.2|
- Garrett Greene ($10,200)
- Jaxson Dart ($9,700)
- The Georgia Bulldogs aren't always a great target, but we saw the Missouri Tigers put up 21 points last week, and the Mississippi Rebels' high flying-offense is an overwhelming favorite to pass that number.
- UGA's staunch rush D (3.6 YPA allowed) should force Dart into more drop backs, and he can add upside as a thrower or rusher (51.1 yards per game) if more is thrust onto his plate.
- John Rhys Plumlee ($9,200)
- After an early-season knee injury, UCF's dual threat is starting to get back up to speed. He rushed for 53 yards and a score last week. In the marquee game of the day, that's exactly the multi-faceted production we'd hope for with an obvious stacking partner on the way.
Others to Consider
- Jordan Travis ($11,000)
- If his 22.9-FanDuel-point clunker against the Pittsburgh Panthers last week was his floor, we'll take that every time. Travis' lone concern here is the spread, but he's operated in projected blowouts throughout conference play.
- I have key Miami (FL) Hurricanes that I want to use, and Travis is one of two Florida State Seminoles I'm okay with selecting.
- Joe Milton III ($10,000)
- The Tennessee Volunteers' matchup with Mizzou has a great total (57.5) that might go overlooked due to the depth on the slate. Without much confidence in Tennessee's rushing or pass-catching market shares, Milton is the only safe way to access their side of it.
- Shedeur Sanders ($9,800)
- The Colorado Buffaloes' season has gone into the tank in Pac 12 play, but if there's a get-right spot, it's the Arizona Wildcats' pass defense that allows 7.7 YPA (83rd in FBS). I like buying low on his hefty passing volume, sitting third in the country in attempts per game (43.2). He can run for score(s), too.
- Haynes King ($9,600)
Rush Att Per Gm
Rush Share %
Targets Per Gm
Target Share %
|Ollie Gordon II||$11,600||OKST||19.3||59.4%||3.0||8.7%|
- Ollie Gordon II ($11,600)
- Gordon's surge from nowhere to Heisman contention has been nothing short of amazing. He won't win it, but he's handled 29.0 carries and 2.0 targets per in the past three weeks with efficiency that's propelled the Cowboys to at least 27 points in all of them. The salary is prohibitive, but there's not a single hole to poke in his workload or matchup.
- Tahj Brooks ($9,800)
- This is a two-running-back game with Devin Neal ($9,700) also having a heavy workload for Kansas on the other side; I'd just prefer to use Jalon Daniels ($9,100) if he's back at QB for KU.
- Brooks' insane workload has merited 30.5 carries per game in the past three weeks, and Kansas (100th in rushing YPA allowed) is a sublime matchup.
- RJ Harvey ($9,000)
- Harvey's early-season platoon problems are gone. He handled 20 of 25 carries a week ago for UCF, turning them into 164 yards and 3 touchdowns in a tougher matchup against the Cincinnati Bearcats than he'll have this week.
- Mark Fletcher Jr. ($6,400)
- We'll always take a value running back getting great work, and Fletcher did last week. He drew 23 of Miami's 28 running back carries, continuing a 62.6% rush share from the last three weeks overall. Florida State (4.0 rushing YPA allowed) isn't as stingy against running backs as you might think.
Others to Consider
- Cody Schrader ($9,500)
- I really don't like the talent for $9,500, but he's getting tremendous work in a hyper-efficient offense entering a projected shootout. We're talking 24.0 carries and 3.0 targets per game in Mizzou's last three, and that's resulted in four touchdowns in that span. He's got 10 rushing scores already!
- Dillon Johnson ($8,700)
- The Washington Huskies' plan to mash the Southern California Trojans on the ground was ideal, and it led to 26 carries and 4 touchdowns for Johnson. The Utah Utes are 12th in FBS in rushing YPA allowed (3.0), so take the under on those marks, but his rush share (66.4% in the past three weeks) is solid for the salary.
- Ray Davis ($8,200)
- FanDuel salary-makers did a nice job to get in front of Davis' matchup to a point where I can still consider him. He's still see 79.6% of UK's carries and 10.3% of their targets in the past three weeks -- well beyond most other backs in this range.
- Emani Bailey ($7,200)
- Here's another tailback that's matchup might be too heavily weighed in this salary. He drew 19 carries and 6 targets last week against Texas Tech, scoring twice. Texas allowed plenty of offensive points last week (30), and Bailey's goal-line role could prove useful if UT keeps turning the ball over in droves.
Targets Per Gm
Target Share %
Routes Per Gm
Yardage Share %
|Luther Burden III||$9,700||MIZZ||10.0||35.3%||29.3||37.3%|
|Brian Thomas Jr.||$9,100||LSU||6.1||19.8%||34.3||25.8%|
- Malik Nabers ($10,500)
- The ideal formula for the projected Biletnikoff Award runner-up in tournaments this weekend might by Jayden Daniels ($12,500) sitting. In his last, prolonged action with Daniels out, he posted 5 catches, 128 yards, and a score in last year's SEC title game.
- There's an argument to be a made a backup helps him most; when it doubt, chuck it to #8. He's got a 41.0% target share in the past five weeks already.
- Tre Harris ($8,200)
- Quietly, Harris has become the guy that he was expected to be transferring from the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. He's held a 35.8% target share in the past five weeks and benefits from the same projected volume bump against Georgia as Jaxson Dart.
- Xavier Worthy ($7,100)
- Texas' QB injury hasn't hurt their top wideout; he's seen 10.0 targets per game in the past five weeks -- good for a 32.5% share.
- TCU is 72nd in passing YPA allowed (7.4), so Worthy's first true eruption game of 2023 is on the menu.
- Devaughn Vele ($5,700)
- Utah may have to throw more than normal to keep up with UDub, and that would most likely benefit Vele. Once in the shadows of Dalton Kincaid, Vele has emerged as the Utes' unquestioned top target with 8.0 looks per game in the past five weeks (33.5% share).
Others to Consider
- Rome Odunze ($9,900) and Ja'Lynn Polk ($9,300)
- Jalen McMillan sat last week's game for Washington, and the Huskies' muddy target tree consolidated heavily around the remaining two of their star trio. Odunze and Polk got 44.8% of the team's total targets, and only Giles Jackson ($5,800) got more than three looks outside of them. If McMillan plays, I'll pass on all parties in a tough matchup with Utah.
- Jacob Cowing ($8,500)
- You name it, and the Buffs have probably been poor defensively at stopping it. Cowing's target share (28.5% the past five weeks) is the only significant mark on the Wildcats in an elite matchup; I do like the idea of stacking he and Sanders in a more-competitive-than-advertised affair.
- Drake Stoops ($8,100)
- Quietly, Stoops has eeked out 8.1 targets per game in the past five weeks. They're almost all short looks, but he's also posted 10.2 yards per reception from his own ability. He's the only Sooner pass-catcher I'd consider in a game I like.
- Theo Wease Jr. ($7,500)
- While Luther Burden III ($9,700) is the "A" option, Wease Jr. is consistently the "B" at a significantly more palatable salary. He's capable of multiple scores behind a 23.8% target share in the past five weeks. However, keep in mind with both that Mizzou often runs exclusively through Schrader at the goal line.
- Ladd McConkey ($7,000)
- I wasn't expecting Brock Bowers ($7,500) anytime soon, but he's apparently back at practice quicker than expected. McConkey had a worthwhile 27.8% target share in the past two weeks without Bowers, but we'll need to confirm the star tight end is still sitting, or Bowers -- as a high-risk play -- is likely once again the only viable UGA piece to target just as he was to begin the year.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.