College Basketball: 5 Best Bets for Today's Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament Games

March Madness is on to the second week.

We've got four games on the schedule today. What are the best bets to target?

Let's dig in.

All March Madness odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and may change after this article is published.

Sweet 16 Best Bets for Friday

Duke vs. St. John's

Duke -6.5 (-112)

Duke is still my favorite side on the Friday board because the matchup puts pressure on the one thing St. John’s does not want to face: elite size plus efficient half-court scoring. Duke comes in 34-2, and its official stats show 81.9 points per game while allowing just 63.1, with Cameron Boozer averaging 22.4 points and 10.3 rebounds, Isaiah Evans at 15.0 points, and Patrick Ngongba II adding 10.5 points on 60.7% shooting. That kind of frontcourt efficiency is a problem for a St. John’s team that wins with toughness and disruption more than shotmaking.

The tournament form also favors Duke. The Blue Devils beat Siena 71-65 and then handled TCU 81-58, while St. John’s beat Northern Iowa 79-53 before surviving Kansas 67-65 on a last-second layup from Dylan Darling. In that Kansas game, Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins had 18 points each, but the larger point for me is that St. John’s needed a late-game escape against a team Duke would likely be favored over by multiple possessions. Duke’s second-round win was cleaner, less variance-driven, and more repeatable.

There is also a real historical edge here. Duke is 16-6 all-time against St. John’s, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and a 91-61 win in the most recent matchup in 2019. This is also the first meeting this season, so there is no recent head-to-head result muddying the read.

The one argument against Duke is St. John’s physicality and Duke’s ball-handling without a fully healthy Caleb Foster, who has been dealing with a foot injury and only had an “outside chance” to return. That matters, but Duke’s raw talent margin, rebounding edge, and half-court scoring profile still make the Blue Devils the right side for me.

Under 141.5 (-110)

This is my favorite total on the Friday slate. The number is not huge, but St. John’s has shown all year that it is comfortable winning ugly, and Duke’s defense is good enough to drag the Johnnies into a possession-by-possession game. Duke’s official numbers show opponents shooting just 39.0% from the field and 30.5% from three against them, while St. John’s enters this matchup after scoring 67 against Kansas and winning a game in which every possession in the final minutes felt high leverage.

St. John’s offensive profile is not one that screams shootout against an elite defense. The Red Storm shot 45.2% from the field and 33.8% from three for the season, with Zuby Ejiofor leading them at 16.0 points and 7.1 rebounds. That is a strong, balanced profile, but not an explosive one against a defense with Duke’s length and rim protection. Duke, meanwhile, has been under this total in both tournament games so far, scoring 71 and 81 while allowing 65 and 58.

The matchup dynamic supports the under, too. Grant Hill called this game a potential “street fight,” which is exactly how St. John’s wants it played. If the Red Storm have a realistic path to covering or winning, it almost certainly comes through slowing the game down, forcing Duke into more half-court possessions, and making every catch physical.

UConn vs. Michigan State

Connecticut Moneyline (-128)

This is the toughest side to price, which is exactly why I prefer the moneyline instead of forcing the short spread. UConn is 31-5 and Michigan State is 27-7, and this is the closest Sweet 16 game on the board. UConn’s team stats show 77.6 points per game, 65.3 points allowed, and a balanced top end led by Tarris Reed Jr. (14.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg), Solo Ball (13.4 ppg), Alex Karaban (12.9 ppg), and Silas Demary Jr., who adds 10.9 points and 211 assists. Michigan State’s official stats show a similarly balanced team, led by Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.3 ppg, 321 assists), Jaxon Kohler (12.6 ppg, 9.0 rpg), Coen Carr (12.0 ppg), and Carson Cooper (11.0 ppg, 7.1 rpg).

Through the tournament, I trust UConn’s shot creation a little more. The Huskies beat Furman 82-71 and then knocked off UCLA 73-57, with Alex Karaban scoring 27 points against the Bruins. Michigan State beat North Dakota State 92-67 and Louisville 77-69. Both résumés are solid, but UConn’s win over UCLA looks like the better “ceiling” result, especially because it came in a controlled defensive performance rather than a pure variance game.

Historically, this matchup is tight but slightly favors Michigan State. MSU’s is 3-2 all-time against UConn. I do not think that matters much for handicapping this specific game, but it does reinforce what the line already says: there is very little separation. In toss-up games, I usually back the team with the better half-court creators and more recent championship-level experience, which is still UConn.

Michigan vs. Alabama

Over 173.5 (-110)

This is the highest total of the Sweet 16 for a reason, and I still think it deserves an over look. Alabama has the most extreme offensive profile left in the field. The Crimson Tide lead the nation at 91.7 points per game, and more than 53% of their shot attempts come from three, according to Michigan’s matchup preview. Official Alabama stats back up the personnel quality: Labaron Philon Jr. averages 21.5 points and 153 assists, Aden Holloway averages 16.8 points and shoots 43.8% from three, and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. has been another major spacer at 13.1 points with 73 made threes. Alabama just put up 90 on Texas Tech after scoring 90 in the first round as well.

Michigan can score with them. The Wolverines are 33-3, and have scored 2,952 points in 36 games, which works out to roughly 82.0 points per game by calculation. Their frontcourt size is unusual for a team this offensively skilled: Yaxel Lendeborg averages 14.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 116 assists, Morez Johnson Jr. averages 13.4 points and 7.3 rebounds, and Aday Mara gives them 12.0 points, 6.9 rebounds, and a huge 96 blocks. Michigan has scored 101 and 95 in its two NCAA tournament wins so far.

The injury angle normally might cool me off an over if a creator is missing, but in this case it actually sharpens the game script. Alabama is reportedly without Aden Holloway because of a suspension, which hurts the Tide, but it also tends to funnel more usage to Philon and increase the offense-first, quick-decision style Alabama already plays. On the other side, Michigan has already seen several teams with similar spread concepts and still won those games while keeping its own offense efficient.

Tennessee vs. Iowa State

Tennessee +3.5 (-105)

This is my favorite underdog number on Friday. Iowa State is the better full-season team at 29-7, but the handicap changes a lot if Joshua Jefferson is limited or unavailable. Jefferson is Iowa State’s second-leading scorer and top rebounder at 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, and both Iowa State- and Tennessee reports say he remains a game-time decision after missing the Kentucky game with an ankle injury. That matters because Tennessee’s path in this matchup is very clear: attack the glass, survive Iowa State’s pressure, and make the game physical.

Tennessee’s has a real offensive engine in Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who averages 18.4 points and 195 assists, with Nate Ament at 16.9 points and 6.4 rebounds and enough frontcourt size behind them to challenge Iowa State inside. Iowa State has a higher defensive ceiling, but without Jefferson at full strength it becomes much easier for Tennessee to keep the rebounding and interior battle close.

There is also a matchup-style reason to like the points. Tennessee’s biggest weakness is turnovers: the Vols average 11.7 per game, and Iowa State is excellent at forcing them, ranking fifth in defensive efficiency and sixth nationally in forced turnovers per game per Tennessee’s Sweet 16 preview. But that exact dynamic is why I prefer taking the points instead of trying to pick a Tennessee outright win: even if Iowa State generates some live-ball mistakes, Tennessee’s physicality and half-court defense can still keep this close throughout. The historical series is small, but Tennessee’s is 2-1 all-time against Iowa State, including a 68-45 win in the most recent meeting in 2018.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.