Cavaliers vs. Celtics: Series Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
Cavaliers vs. Celtics: Series Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props

The Eastern Conference Semifinals could be gearing up for two lopsided series. Each matchup has the favorite carrying at least -290 odds to win the series. The Boston Celtics are major favorites to take down the Cleveland Cavaliers at -3000 when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds.

Cleveland snuck by the Orlando Magic in seven games in the first round. Boston emphatically silenced critics after losing Game 2 against the Miami Heat; the Celtics won the final three games of the series by an average margin of 22.7 points per game (PPG).

This series is shaping up to be like David vs. Goliath. Boston has the shortest odds to win the NBA Finals (+105) while the Cavs have the longest odds among active teams (+6500). Does Cleveland have any chance of pulling off the odds-defying upset, similar to David?

Let's check out the matchup by looking at the odds and various stats.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Betting Odds: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

  • Series Moneyline:
    • Cavaliers: +1120
    • Celtics: -3000
  • Total Games:
    • 4 (+140)
    • 5 (+160)
    • 6 (+400)
    • 7 (+550)
  • Series Correct Score:
    • Cavaliers 4-0 (+13000)
    • Cavaliers 4-1 (+6500)
    • Cavaliers 4-2 (+2300)
    • Cavaliers 4-3 (+3400)
    • Celtics 4-0 (+140)
    • Celtics 4-1 (+170)
    • Celtics 4-2 (+500)
    • Celtics 4-3 (+700)
  • Correct Score After Three Games:
    • Cavaliers 3-0 (+7500)
    • Cavaliers 2-1 (+650)
    • Celtics 3-0 (-105)
    • Celtics 2-1 (+120)
  • Series Spread:
    • Cavaliers +3.5 (-225)
    • Celtics -3.5 (+180)

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Prediction

  • numberFire Prediction:
    • Cavaliers To Make Conference Finals: 9.4%
    • Celtics To Make Conference Finals: 90.6%
  • ESPN Prediction:
    • Cavaliers To Make Conference Finals: 23.3%
    • Celtics To Make Conference Finals: 76.7%
  • Opta Analyst Prediction:
    • Cavaliers To Make Conference Finals: 9.2%
    • Celtics To Make Conference Finals: 90.8%
  • Basketball-Reference Prediction:
    • Cavaliers To Make Conference Finals: 8.2%
    • Celtics To Make Conference Finals: 91.8%

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Player Props

Most Total Points:

  • Donovan Mitchell: +110
  • Jayson Tatum: +125
  • Jaylen Brown: +750
  • Derrick White: +1900

Most Total Assists:

  • Darius Garland: +130
  • Jayson Tatum: +250
  • Donovan Mitchell: +290
  • Derrick White: +1100
  • Jrue Holiday: +1100

Most Total Made Threes:

  • Derrick White: +155
  • Donovan Mitchell: +195
  • Jayson Tatum: +320
  • Darius Garland: +1700
  • Jaylen Brown: +1800

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

  • Cavaliers:
    • nERD: 58.8 (10th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 114.6 (18th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.6 (7th)
    • Pace: 97.5 (24th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 39-42-1
    • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
      • Rim: 35.4% (12th) - 63.2% (17th)
      • Mid: 22.4% (2nd) - 44.8% (8th)
      • 3PT: 42.2% (7th) - 36.7% (15th)
  • Celtics:
    • nERD: 80.8 (1st)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 122.0 (1st)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (2nd)
    • Pace: 97.7 (19th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 41-36-5
    • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
      • Rim: 31.1% (26th) - 67.2% (4th)
      • Mid: 21.8% (1st) - 43.7% (15th)
      • 3PT: 47.1% (1st) - 38.8% (2nd)

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Analysis

The Cavaliers and Celtics met three times during the regular season. Each roster was mostly healthy -- including key starters -- in all three matchups. Cleveland did well against the spread (ATS) in these clashes, going 2-1 and even pulling off one upset as an 8.5-point home underdog.

Still, the Cavs were only 1-2 outright against the Celtics, and it's unlikely that Cleveland will find much success in this Eastern Conference Semifinals. The prediction section suggests that as numberFire is giving Boston a 90.6% chance to win this series. In fact, three of four sources list the Celtics with a 90.6% or higher chance to advance.

Advanced stats hammer home this point, for Boston is among the top 2 in offensive and defensive ratings, while the Cavaliers are only the top 10 in defensive rating.

Cleveland's best chance to make this competitive could be guarding the three-point line. The Celtics heavily rely on launching treys with the highest shot distribution from three in the Association. They also total the most three-point makes and attempts each contest.

Guarding the three has not been the Cavs' strength; they give up the 9th-most attempted treys and have the 14th-worst mark in three-point percentage. Meanwhile, Cleveland is in the top half of various stats for guarding the rim. This is not an ideal matchup with Boston having the fifth-lowest shot distribution around the rim.

By nearly all accounts, this is not a good matchup for the Wine and Gold. The Celtics have been viewed as the NBA's best team for nearly the entire season via numberFire's nERD-based power rankings.

Cleveland continues to be up and down. Plus, Jarrett Allen's status for this series is up in the air. Allen has a 108.8 defensive rating and 19.2% usage rate (fourth-highest on the team) in the playoffs.

Boston silenced concerns by winning their last three games by over 20.0 PPG. The Celtics also boast the third-best offensive and defensive ratings in the postseason.

For the correct series score, Boston sweeping 4-0 has the shortest odds (+140). The Celtics seem poised to roll to their third straight Eastern Conference Finals.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.