Carabao Cup Final Best Bets: Arsenal vs. Manchester City

By Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

The Carabao Cup final takes place on Sunday, with Arsenal and Manchester City battling for England's first trophy of the season.

Which bets stand out ahead of the final?

Soccer odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change.

Arsenal vs. Manchester City Best Bets for the EFL Cup Final

• Under 2.5 goals at -120
• Gabriel to score anytime at +600
• Gabriel to score anytime and Declan Rice anytime assist at +233

The first piece of silverware in English soccer is on the line Sunday as Arsenal face Manchester City at Wembley.

While this matchup will be hyped as a marquee showdown, these types of finals don’t always live up to the billing from an entertainment standpoint. Add in Arsenal’s structured, defense-first approach, and this has all the makings of a low-event, cagey game.

That points straight toward the total.

Recent history backs it up. Four of the last five EFL Cup Finals have gone under 2.5 goals, while seven of the last 10 domestic cup finals at Wembley have produced two goals or fewer. Head-to-head, Mikel Arteta vs. Pep Guardiola has also trended under, with four of their last six meetings cashing the under.

More importantly, the underlying numbers tell the same story. Across those six matchups, the teams have combined for just 9.8 expected goals (xG) -- an average of 1.63 xG per match. That’s an extremely low chance creation profile and suggests the lack of goals isn’t random.

Factor in the added tension of a final, where risk-taking is limited and margins are razor-thin, and it’s hard to see this turning into an open, end-to-end game -- even with some recent defensive cracks from City.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals (-120)

Set pieces could once again be the deciding factor -- which plays right into Arsenal’s strengths.

Each of the last four EFL Cup Finals has seen the opening goal come from a set piece, with three of those scored by center-backs. Arsenal are one of the most dangerous teams in Europe from dead-ball situations, and Gabriel is their primary aerial threat.

Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Gabriel has scored 13 goals, at least eight more than any other Arsenal defender. Given the likely game script and historical trends, he’s a strong candidate to get on the scoresheet.

Best Bet: Gabriel Anytime Goalscorer (+600)

If you’re looking for a bigger payout, there’s a correlated angle worth considering.

Pairing Gabriel Anytime Goalscorer with a Declan Rice Anytime Assist creates a longshot play at +2332. Rice handles the majority of Arsenal’s corners and free kicks and is also their leading assist provider this season -- making this a logical combo if Arsenal score from a set piece.

Best Bet: Gabriel Anytime Goalscorer + Declan Rice Anytime Assist (+2332)

You could also look at other Arsenal set-piece targets like William Saliba (+1300) or Jurrien Timber (+800), but Gabriel remains the standout option given his scoring record and dominance in the air.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.