Can Jonathan Taylor Excel in Fantasy Football Despite the Colts' Quarterback Concerns?

In 2024, Jonathan Taylor was productive despite mixed quarterback play from Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco, and the QB room will continue to be a major question mark entering 2025. This offseason, the Indianapolis Colts swapped out Flacco for Daniel Jones, who will compete with Richardson for the starting job this summer.

Despite that uncertainty, Taylor has generally been drafted as a second-round pick, per FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) data. In half-PPR formats, his ADP is 18th overall as the RB8.

At this cost, is Taylor someone we want to target this year? Or should his quarterback situation and injury history scare us off?

Jonathan Taylor 2024 Season Recap

Although Taylor still missed time due to injury last season, it was easily his best campaign since finishing as the overall RB1 in 2021.

Across 14 games, Taylor racked up 1,567 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns, finishing as the RB9 in half-PPR total points and the RB5 in half-PPR points per game.

Best of all, he saved some of his best performances for the end of the season, scoring 39.8, 26.6, and 24.5 points in Weeks 16-18, helping many fantasy teams to league championships.

Taylor finished the year ranked sixth in touches (321) despite missing three games, and he benefited from fantastic play by his offensive line, a unit that graded fourth in run blocking by PFF and fourth in run block win rate by ESPN. Top-shelf volume and O-line play is a lethal combination for fantasy points.

However, some of Taylor's underlying numbers suggest that his production was mostly a byproduct of those two factors rather than his own efficient play.

According to PFF, among 46 running backs who logged at least 100 carries last season, Taylor ranked 11th in yards per attempt (4.7) but was 39th in yards after contact (2.68), 27th in missed tackles (36), and 45th in elusive rating (35.1). The end result was the site grading him 46th in overall offense and 42nd in rushing from that group.

Further, Taylor averaged -0.09 expected points added per carry with just a 38.3% rushing success rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Much of this may have been due to the lingering effects of an ankle injury that caused him to miss Weeks 5-7, but ankle issues have been a problem for Taylor dating back to 2022, so a bounce back in efficiency isn't a given as he enters his sixth NFL campaign.

Jonathan Taylor 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

If we're looking at the glass half full, the boatload of fantasy points Taylor piled up to end last season has to be the most encouraging sign. Taylor logged 29, 32, and 34 carries during that onslaught, and usage like that will always play, even if he's lost some burst. While we probably can't expect that kind of a volume on a weekly basis, it wouldn't be shocking for the Colts to run their offense through Taylor due to their iffy QB room.

And speaking of which, with Flacco out of the picture, it's worth highlighting that Taylor's role and production were generally better with him under center compared to Richardson last season.

In the five weeks Flacco played the majority of snaps with Taylor active, the running back averaged 18.0 fantasy points, 121.0 scrimmage yards, 24.2 rushes, and 3.8 targets per game. In Richardson's nine full games with Taylor, the RB averaged 16.4 fantasy points, 106.9 scrimmage yards, 20.2 rushes, and 1.3 targets per game. Further, Taylor's red zone rush share was 64.2% with Richardson and 85.7% with Flacco.

The differences were somewhat subtle, but this does suggest that a Jones-led offense could benefit Taylor in 2025.

Despite also being a dual-threat QB, the oft-injured Jones is less likely to vulture touchdowns, as he's recorded 15 rushing scores across 6 seasons while Richardson already has 10 TDs in only 15 career starts. Jones might also target Taylor more often as a receiver like he did with Saquon Barkley during his New York Giants tenure.

With Richardson still recovering from an injury, Jones looks like the early leader to start Week 1, too.

Regardless of who wins the QB battle, Taylor should once again benefit from a strong offensive line. Despite some personnel changes, this Colts O-line ranks fifth in PFF's offseason rankings.

Taylor's checkered injury history remains a concern, but that's much easier to accept at his ADP when considering Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Christian McCaffrey are all veterans with their own risks, yet consistently go in the first round.

Last year's dip in efficiency might be my biggest worry, as that would leave him vulnerable if the offensive line takes a step back. Still, at a position where volume remains king, the possibility of a healthy Taylor being among the league leaders in touches should be enough to have us buying in the second round, particularly with Jones trending toward being the starting QB.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.