Can Anybody Catch Shohei Ohtani to Win the 2025 NL MVP Award?

The National League MVP race for the 2025 MLB season is unsurprisingly Shohei Ohtani versus the field, and the legendary slugger is off to a blazing start this year, making him the clear favorite in the NL MVP market in the MLB Awards odds section on FanDuel Sportsbook at -250 odds. Ohtani has been awarded an MVP trophy in three of the last four years, earning two American League MVP awards with the Los Angeles Angels before snagging some hardware in his first year with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2024.

In all of the non-COVID years since the 2018 campaign, the NL MVP has logged a batting average of .310 or higher, 35-plus home runs, and 84-plus RBIs. On top of that, the last time we saw a non-hitter take home the NL MVP was in 2014 when Clayton Kershaw secured the trophy with a 21-3 record, 1.77 ERA, and 239 strikeouts in 198.1 innings pitched.

Taking all of that into account, is there any chance of another player emerging from the pack and closing the gap between them and Ohtani for the NL MVP crown? Let's start by looking at Ohtani's numbers to begin the 2025 season and then discuss the other players who could carve out a case for the award.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Shohei Ohtani's 2025 Stats

At the moment, Ohtani is sporting the third-best wOBA (.430), fourth-best wRC+ (181), and third-best ISO (.352) in all of baseball in his first 61 games and 285 plate appearances. Ohtani is also logging the second-most home runs (23) while being tied for the 22nd-most RBIs (39) and 16th-most stolen bases (11).

While some could view the lack of RBIs as a concern, Ohtani exploded for 27 RBIs across 128 plate appearances in May following a stretch in March and April where he totaled only 10 RBIs over 135 plate appearances. And for those that prioritize a player's impact on a team, Ohtani is tallying the fourth-best WAR (3.3; Wins Above Replacement), putting him only behind the likes of Aaron Judge (5.3), Cal Raleigh (4.0), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (3.6).

Upon looking at Ohtani's Baseball Savant page, things look pretty good under the hood, as the hard-hitting lefty is ranked in the 100th percentile in xwOBA (.456), xSLG (.711), average exit velocity (96.0 MPH), and hard-hit rate (64.2%). Comparing Ohtani's xSLG to his actual SLG (.648) suggests he's also been a bit unlucky in the home run department.

When dissecting Ohtani's advanced metrics and standard stats, it's easy to see why he's expected to run away with the NL MVP award.

Dark Horses to Win the 2025 NL MVP Award

Pete Crow-Armstrong (+1500)

We would have called anyone who predicted Pete Crow-Armstrong being in the NL MVP race insane before the season began, but here we are. Crow-Armstrong is amid a breakout campaign for the Chicago Cubs, earning the 8th-most HRs (16), 3rd-most RBIs (53), and 4th-most stolen bases (21) en route to having the 3rd-best WAR (3.6).

Up to this point, the Chicago Cubs have the best record (39-23) in the National League, which undoubtedly helps PCA's case to at least be in the conversation. Although there's chance we see Crow-Armstrong's production take a slight dip moving forward, one of his teammates could also enter their name into the NL MVP sweepstakes.

Kyle Tucker (+1600)

The trade for Kyle Tucker has transformed the Cubs this season, and he's performed well thus far, registering the 27th-most HRs (12), 22nd-most RBIs (39), and 9th-most stolen bases en route to the 13th-best WAR (2.6). Tucker is also outproducing Crow-Armstrong in the wOBA (.391) and wRC+ (155) categories, as teams tend to pitch him differently due to his ability to get on base in a variety of ways.

Additionally, Tucker has always excelled at avoiding Ks, but the veteran outfielder is currently sporting a career-best 11.6% strikeout rate, which is tied for the 11th-best mark in the majors. With the weather getting warmer and Wrigley Field being a hitter's paradise in hotter conditions, Tucker's numbers could see a drastic boost in the coming months.

Freddie Freeman (+2500)

Of the players chasing Ohtani for the NL MVP, we may not have to look further than his teammate, Freddie Freeman. Despite dealing with an ankle injury to begin the season, Freeman is posting the 2nd-best wOBA (.441), 2nd-best wRC+ (188), and 16th-best ISO (.253) to begin the 2025 campaign.

Although Freeman only has 9 dingers to his name, he has 40 RBIs and 9 stolen bases, resulting in him sitting at 11th in WAR (2.7). It's going to be tough for one of Ohtani's teammates to drum up attention in the MLB awards race, but Freeman deserves some praise for being one of the best hitters in baseball still.

Pete Alonso (+3000)

Pete Alonso has recorded three seasons where he's totaled 40-plus HRs and 118-plus RBIs, but he's never finished higher than 7th in NL MVP voting. Nevertheless, Alonso could very well be playing on the best New York Mets team he's had, as the Mets possess the second-best record (39-24) in the National League.

Alonso is heating up to begin June, hitting 4 long balls already, giving him the 10th-most HRs (15) in baseball. Even though Alonso is mostly recognized for his power, he's dominating in multiple categories this year, notching the 5th-best wOBA (.414), 5th-best wRC+ (172), and 7th-best ISO (.281), while New York could push Los Angeles for the top seed in the National League.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.