Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets for the Wawa 250 at Daytona

Maybe I'm stubborn.

Maybe I'm a moron.

But I can't stop buying into Aric Almirola at drafting tracks in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.

This will be Almirola's fifth pack race since jumping back down to the series with Joe Gibbs Racing. In the previous four, his best finish is third, and he has just one other top-10.

Yet my model still makes him the second most likely winner, trailing just the unbeatable-in-the-draft Austin Hill.

I agree with the model that Almirola is undervalued in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds, and I'm willing to bet him. But it is worth noting we've seen this before, and it hasn't been all that rosy.

Let's dive into the model's pre-qualifying simulations, and then we can discuss which value I like this week.

Two notes on the sims. First, Connor Zilisch has said he plans to get out of the car at the first caution due to his broken collarbone, giving way to Parker Kligerman. I've given Zilisch a downgrade from his baseline, but it's possible it's not enough. With that said, Kligerman is a quality superspeedway racer, so I don't want to completely omit the 88 car from the sims.

Second, only the top 38 cars in my sims were included, so Logan Bearden was omitted.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for Daytona

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks for Daytona

• Aric Almirola (+1800): Almirola won at both Daytona and Talladega in the Cup Series, and even in his final full season in Cup, he was third in the summer Daytona race. The model is still clinging to that skill, and when you put it in a JGR car, it's going to love him. Four races on pack tracks isn't a big enough sample for me to say Almirola can't get the job done, so I'm going back to the well again.
• Sheldon Creed (+1700): Creed -- who is apparently legally barred from winning races, based on his 14 career runner-ups with no wins -- has run well on pack tracks even after leaving the dominant Richard Childress Racing. He was runner-up in the Daytona opener last year, and he was third this year with Haas. He has run up front a bunch in the other pack races this year, too, so he's worth a swing despite the devil magic keeping him out of victory lane.
• Justin Allgaier (+1700): Allgaier won this race two years ago, was third in the other race that year, and has two top-fives in four pack races this year. I'm seeing value in this tier due to the model's viewing Hill as overvalued, so it's possible this is fool's gold if Hill is truly just unbeatable. Still, Allgaier has beaten Hill before, and I think he has the upside to do it again.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.