Logo
START YOUR OWN WINNING STREAK
Player Image
SportsBookLogo
Chevrons Texture
NASCAR

Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville

Subscribe to our newsletter

Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville

Motivation -- or lackt thereof -- is playing a big role in betting markets for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race in Martinsville.

This is the final race before the championship, meaning drivers who haven't yet locked in a spot are about to get desperate. Ryan Blaney has won this race in back-to-back years, and he's one of those must-win drivers. As a result, he's +380 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

Blaney should be the favorite. But I think the market has gone a bit too far in weighing motivation, creating value lower in the order.

Let's dig into that now, starting with my pre-practice simulations before delving into my favorite bets of the week.

NASCAR Predictions for Martinsville

Driver
Win
Top 3
Top 5
Top 10
Ryan Blaney13.56%32.92%46.44%69.64%
Kyle Larson9.92%26.90%40.18%65.00%
Denny Hamlin8.88%26.04%40.36%64.08%
Chase Elliott9.14%25.20%38.24%62.80%
William Byron7.76%22.16%34.36%58.20%
Chase Briscoe7.10%21.48%33.66%57.12%
Joey Logano6.22%17.04%28.64%52.22%

NASCAR Betting Picks for Martinsville

Chase Briscoe to Win (+1900)

Chase Briscoe is already locked into the Championship Race, meaning every second of his sim time this week will be at Phoenix. I just think this number over-accounts for that, making Briscoe worth a swipe despite the lack of motivation.

Martinsville is one of Briscoe's better tracks. He had a pair of top-fives here while running for Stewart-Haas Racing, a big step down in equipment from what he's got now with Joe Gibbs Racing. He has had a top-nine average running position here in five straight races.

Briscoe excels on flat tracks, a skill that has carried over to JGR. He was runner-up in both Iowa and Gateway, better than he performed at those tracks with SHR. Giving him a boost at Martinsville should make him a threat for the win.

It's possible Briscoe had already prepped for Martinsville last week as his win in Talladega was unexpected. They probably thought they'd need a good run here, and that could help him produce exactly that on Sunday. I'd rather take a big swing at his win odds than his safer markets because there's a good bit of volatility, but I do think Briscoe has the upside to get this done.

Josh Berry to Finish Top 5 (+500)

Josh Berry was Briscoe's teammate at SHR, and he was similarly good there on flat tracks. In a much better ride with Wood Brothers Racing, Berry should be able to run up front.

Berry is fresh off a runner-up finish in New Hampshire, a race he could have won had it not been for some mid-race issues. He was also fourth earlier this year in Phoenix, which is another short, flat track.

Martinsville hasn't been as kind to Berry as you'd think, given his short-track background. His best finish in the Xfinity Series was fourth, and it's just 16th in Cup thus far. Still, I believe in his talent on this track type, and with Berry in a quality ride, I agree with the model that he is undervalued.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 5 (+1100)

Austin Cindric is in effectively the same equipment as Berry and has also shown upside here. This is a very long number based on both Cindric's form and track history.

Cindric finished top five in this race just last year. Despite qualifying 24th, he methodically picked his way forward for a fourth-place finish. It was the start of a turnaround for Cindric that carried over into this year.

Cindric finished in the top five in Richmond, and it came after he had a seventh-place average running position in Iowa. He also had good speed in Gateway but ran into issues. The pace has been there this year even if the finishes haven't always been.

The consistency with Cindric is lacking, which is why I'd rather shoot for the top-five bet than the top-10 line even though both are values. For this market, specifically, I have him 17.6% versus 8.3% implied, more than enough wiggle room for me to live with his ups and downs.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+1300)

There are a bunch of drivers in this range who stand out as values to me for top-10s, including:

  • Austin Dillon (+900)
  • Daniel Suarez (+1100)
  • Michael McDowell (+1300)
  • John Hunter Nemechek (+1600)

Of the group, I feel best about Zane Smith. But I think any and all of those drivers are in play at such long odds.

This has been a disappointing season for Front Row Motorsports, but Smith has shown some flashes of promise. He finished third in Bristol during the playoffs, showing he could manage tires in a chaotic race. He was 11th in Richmond and 9th in Phoenix earlier in the year -- two short, flat tracks on the schedule.

Smith's speed has been masked by late-race incidents, many of which weren't his own doing. That tells me he's due for positive regression. Given Smith's runs in Richmond and Phoenix, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets that on Sunday.


New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Want more stories like this?

Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.

Newsletter Signup
Newsletter Signup