Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Viva Mexico 250 in Mexico City

For the first time in the modern era, the NASCAR Cup Series is holding a points race on international soil.

Vamos.

The field is in Mexico City to race at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, which previously hosted NASCAR Xfinity Series races and is a regular stop for Formula 1. The elevation will provide a unique test, as will the lengthy front stretch.

Who should we expect to come out on top for Sunday's thriller?

Below are my model's pre-practice simulations for the race. After that, we'll run through which drivers stand out as values to me in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

(NOTE: I'm currently projecting Denny Hamlin as in the field even though he has said he will not race if his partner has not given birth to their son in time for him to get to Mexico.)

NASCAR Predictions for Mexico City

NASCAR Betting Picks for Mexico City

Tyler Reddick to Win (+900)

Technically, William Byron is the better value in my sims. He's above Tyler Reddick, and both guys are +900 at FanDuel.

I just have a personal preference for Reddick, so I'm going that way. Congrats to Byron on his imminent win.

Reddick gets the nod for me due to his sterling record on road courses. He has won 3 of 18 Next-Gen road-course races, and he has podiumed in two others. One of those podiums was this year at COTA when he finished third with a sixth-place average running position.

Reddick's road-course wins have come at three different venues, showing he can get around a variety of circuits. He's 12.5% to win for me, so I'm happy to take him at +900.

AJ Allmendinger to Win (+1400)

AJ Allmendinger has always been a force on road courses, but his overall form now is the best it has been in a long time. That boosts my confidence in him at a forgiving number.

Allmendinger enters with 4 top-10s in 15 races this year, including a top-5 in Charlotte. None of those great runs have come on road courses, making it clear that Kaulig Racing's raw pace is up.

Allmendinger had good speed at COTA this year, holding a sixth-place average running position. A loose wheel on the final run ruined that, though, and he finished 30th.

During the Next-Gen era, Dinger has a win at the Charlotte ROVAL and a runner-up in Watkins Glen. He lost out to then-teammate Shane Van Gisbergen in the Xfinity Series last year as he failed to win any of their six road-course races, so it's possible Allmendinger's supremacy has slipped. But at +1400, we're getting enough of a discount to still bet him this week.

Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 5 (+500)

Given Ty Gibbs' erratic form, I want as little money tied up into him as possible. That could mean betting his outright at +3400 rather than his top 5 (as our bet size should typically decrease as the odds of the bet winning decrease).

I'm just way above market on his top-five odds, and going here makes me feel more comfortable backing both Reddick and Allmendinger to win. I'd still proceed with caution, but I do think this is the proper way to play Gibbs.

The extreme skepticism stems from the fact that Gibbs has flopped in his third full-time Cup season. He has just 3 top-10s in 15 races, an unacceptable rate for someone in his equipment. He has often slipped even after putting up great times in practice.

This was true at COTA, too. Gibbs was just non-competitive there, which is concerning given it's the lone road course we've seen.

Still, the talent is there, especially on road courses. He was top-three in both Chicago and COTA last year, and he's a four-time Xfinity winner on road courses. He also is coming off arguably his best race of the year, a third-place finish in Nashville.

If you don't want on the Gibbs roller coaster, I don't blame you. It's probably the wise move. I just can't resist when I'm this far above market on him, so I do want in, whether it's via this top-five or the outright.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.