Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro

Given the unique format, the NASCAR All-Star Race is a tough one to predict.

Thus, we should proceed with caution when trying to bet it as there's more variance than usual. It's a fun event, though, and one I'm still willing to bet when I think there's good value.

I do think we have that for this weekend's festivities in North Wilkesboro.

That's not limited to just the main event, either. FanDuel Sportsbook has odds for the All-Star Open in their NASCAR betting odds, as well, and my favorite bet of the week actually comes from there.

Let's start with that race, lay out my model's pre-qualifying simulations for The Open and the one bet I like. Then, we'll transition to the main event.

One note for The Main is that the win probabilities won't add up to 100%. That's because three drivers will transition from The Open to The Main, and they can win the race. I've projected it as a "worst-case scenario," which would mean the three strongest Open cars advance. It could lead to undervaluging some of the locked-in drivers, but I'd rather do that and avoid a bet than lock in a bad bet because I wasn't allocating enough win equity to Open cars.

(UPDATE: Sims for both the Open and Main have since been updated.)

NASCAR All-Star Open Predictions

NASCAR All-Star Open Betting Picks

Bubba Wallace to Win (+350)

(UPDATE: Wallace has singe lengthened to +850. I was, in fact, the donkey, and the model is still ultra-high on him even though he'll start 14th in a short race. Still, Wallace led this group in single-lap speed in practice and was second in 10-lap average. A lot of the cars in front of him are weaker, so I think he'll be able to pick his way through traffic. It's just a question if he can catch the cars with cleaner air. I'd be willing to back him at +850 if he weren't already on my card, but the model has whiffed on him once already this weekend.)

I'm waaaaaaaay off market on Bubba Wallace, so maybe I'm a donkey here. But by my numbers, he's easily the class of the field.

Wallace has been superb in North Wilkesboro. He was runner-up in 2023, advanced via The Open last year, and raced his way forward to a sixth-place finish.

This isn't a surprise with how well he has run on short, flat tracks recently. Wallace finished third and had a fourth-place average running position in Martinsville, and he had top-fives in both Richmond and Martinsville last year, too.

If Wallace is in second place, there's no guarantee he gets aggressive for the win as that spot also advances. That's partly what happened to him last year, so the model is likely too high on him. I do feel pretty firm, though, that +350 is underselling how good he is relative to the rest of this field.

NASCAR All-Star Race Predictions

NASCAR All-Star Race Betting Picks

Chase Briscoe to Win (+2000)

(UPDATE: Briscoe has since shortened to +1200 to win. I'm, frankly, not sure why, given he'll start 14th, but I would not bet him at this new number.)

Chase Briscoe finished fourth here in 2023 and has generally been at his best on short, flat tracks. He's a good value here.

Briscoe's first Cup Series win came at Phoenix -- a short, flat track -- back in 2022. Since then, he has added another top-five at Phoenix plus two in Martinsville and one in New Hampshire. He finished fourth at Bristol this year, which isn't flat but is short.

Most of Briscoe's quality runs on this track type came with Stewart-Haas Racing. Now that he's with Joe Gibbs Racing, his upside is even higher, and I think the best is still to come. Thus, I'm not going to fight the model too much as it puts Briscoe at 5.9% to win, up from 4.8% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ross Chastain to Finish Top 5 (+280)

Ross Chastain will start third after finishing second in his heat race on Saturday night. He'll have the requisite track position to potentially pull this off.

Chastain's speed was decent in practice. He was sixth in single-lap speed (including Open cars) but fell to 18th in 10-lap average. It helps we got to see him in race trim, showing there was some speed in the car.

Although short tracks haven't always been Chastain's forte, he has been decent this year. He finished seventh in Bristol and was sixth in Martinsville. He has finished seventh and 11th in his two All-Star races at North Wilkesboro, so I'm willing to back him at this number.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+350)

Daniel Suarez will start just outside the top 10 in 14th and had good speed in practice. I think there's enough here to justify betting him in such a small field.

Suarez was 15th in single-lap pace and 13th in 10-lap average among both Open and Main cars. This is a continuation of his past decent pace at the track as he finished seventh here in 2023.

Suarez doesn't tend to have upside on short, flat tracks, but he can sneak into the top 10. He did so last year in Phoenix, Richmond, and Iowa (which isn't flat but is short), and he has had good runs at New Hampshire in the past. Given his proximity to the top 10 at the start, I like Suarez in this market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.