Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bet for Thursday 5/1/25

Major League Baseball is a sport perfectly suited for same game parlays.

Not only do we have abundant options across the traditional markets and props for both pitchers and hitters, but plenty of those bets correlate well. Given parlays require all legs to hit, that cohesion is key.

Which SGP stands out to me tonight?

Let's dig into the Washington Nationalsat the Philadelphia Phillies and lay out where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB SGP for Nationals at Phillies

Leg 1: Taijuan Walker Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-118)

The Nats tend to suppress strikeouts versus righties, and Taijuan Walker isn't known for racking up the Ks over his career, so this might seem like a questionable opening leg.

However, Walker has actually been generating a 25.5% strikeout rate versus left-handed batters this season, and it just so happens Washington deploys a predominantly lefty-heavy lineup versus right-handers. He's faced roughly the same number of batters on both sides of the plate, but 13 of his 20 punchouts have come versus lefty sticks.

Among the left-handed batters Walker should see tonight, Nathaniel Lowe, James Wood, Jose Tena, C.J. Abrams, and Josh Bell all have K rates above 22%, and Lowe (30.2%) and Wood (27.2%) having particularly vulnerable marks.

Given that Walker's K rate has otherwise been unremarkable since joining the Phillies in 2023, there's a good chance his early success in this split tapers off, but we also have to keep in mind that this isn't a very high bar he has to reach. The veteran hurler has logged 4+ strikeouts in four of his five starts

Pitch count also shouldn't be a problem, as Walker has gone as high as 99 pitches this year.

Leg 2: Kyle Schwarber to Record an RBI (-105)

Washington right-hander Brad Lord is one of Thursday's weakest starters, coming in with a 5.72 xERA, 16.7% strikeout rate, and 11.5% walk rate. We should expect a big night at the plate from Philadelphia, and that should mean RBI opportunities for cleanup hitter Kyle Schwarber.

Schwarber leads the Phillies in RBIs (23) and home runs (9), and that production is backed by a .420 xwOBA (96th percentile), .581 xSLG (94th percentile), 14.3% barrel rate (80th percentile), and 57.1% hard-hit rate (95th percentile).

Lord has shown underwhelming metrics facing lefties, too, recording a 4.76 xFIP, 18.9% K rate, 16.2% BB rate, and 37.5% GB rate.

Seeing as Schwarber is such a patient hitter, the one worry is that he gets walked by Lord, but that risk is balanced out by the likelihood he comes to the plate with runners on base, in addition to having the power to cash this leg by knocking one of the park.

Leg 3: Max Kepler to Record a Run (-110)

We can use Lord's walk rate against lefties to our advantage, as well, as that increases the chance of Max Kepler getting on base.

Despite being in a platoon and usually batting sixth or seventh in the order, Kepler is fifth on the team in runs (14) due to getting on base at solid clip behind a 17.6% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate, and 48.7% hard-hit rate. His .365 xwOBA puts him in the 77th percentile, too.

Kepler has also homered in two of the last three starts, so he could be finding the power he exhibited prior to a down year in that department last year. Citizens Bank Park remains one of the best ballparks for dingers, potentially aiding both Kepler and Schwarber in this SGP.

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +549

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.