Best F1 Bets and Predictions for the Monaco Grand Prix

Trying to predict what will happen at the Monaco Grand Prix is a different beast than any other track on the Formula 1 calendar.

Due to the increased size of the cars and the narrow track, passing is nearly impossible. Drivers can intentionally drive slow in order to bunch up the field, knowing the car in pursuit won't be able to do anything about it.

This makes qualifying paramount, and margins there are razor thin. Thus, volatility is at an all-time high.

There's a chance things shift this year now that teams are required to complete two pit stops in the race, upping the strategy and (hopefully) decreasing the odds teams can sandbag. But whether the rule has its intended outcome is unknown.

With that said, there are some bets I like prior to practice and qualifying in FanDuel Sportsbook's F1 betting odds. They're spots where I'm far enough above market to account for potential variance, allowing me to rest a bit easier ahead of an unpredictable grand prix weekend.

Let's start with my model's pre-practice sims of the race, and then we can dig into which bets are showing value for me.

F1 Monaco Grand Prix Predictions

Best F1 Bets for the Monaco Grand Prix

Oscar Piastri Fastest Qualifier/Race Winner Double (+330)

I'm above market on Oscar Piastri to win -- 40.1% versus 35.1% implied at +185. Thus, I could go that route.

Here, though, I'm getting a longer number, and if Piastri wins pole, his odds of winning the race skyrocket. This is my preferred market.

Piastri is in elite form, having won three of seven poles this year and four of seven races. He also showed he could wheel it around Monaco last year with a runner-up finish. He managed points in 2023, as well, despite entering the race with wretched form as it was before McLaren's massive mid-season upgrades arrived.

If you think the two-stop race makes qualifying less important, then I don't mind taking the value on Piastri to win at +185. It gives you an out should someone eek him out on Saturday. I'm just skeptical that'll catalyze massive change, so I want a bigger payout for the risk I'm taking on.

Yuki Tsunoda to Score Points (+145)

Prior to last year, Monaco was a hellish place for Yuki Tsunoda as he had finished 15th or worse in all three attempts. He proved he could keep the car clean in finishing eighth, though, allowing me to take the massive value I'm showing here.

Although Tsunoda's start with Red Bull has been underwhelming, he has consistently been in the points. He has done so in three of five races with one of the exceptions being due to a first-lap crash. Last week, he rallied from starting dead last to finish 10th.

Because Tsunoda has had decent race pace, my model's super high on him this week. I've got value on him to win (+50000), podium (+7000), and finish top 6 (+500) in addition to this bet. I just have a hard time passing up the flexibility, myself.

This isn't a bad spot to consider a ladder bet where you take your typical bet amount and divide it across various markets to give yourself upside should Tsunoda hit his peak. If I'm placing just one bet, though, it'd be on the top 10.

Pierre Gasly to Score Points (+145)

I've also got value on Isack Hadjar (+175) and Oliver Bearman (+350) to score points, and I think they're worth considering. The safety in a veteran like Pierre Gasly is appealing, though, as those two run their first F1 races in Monaco this weekend.

Gasly has proven he can handle this treacherous track. Even while running for mid-field teams (almost) his entire career, he has scored points in five of six trips. The one exception came in 2022 when he qualified 17th but actually did manage to make passes en route to an 11th-place finish.

Gasly's speed is better than his results this year. He has finished top 10 just once with a pair of DNFs. It's possible the dysfunction at Alpine will prevent him from realizing the potential in the car, but I have enough faith in Gasly as a driver to think his finishes will regress toward the pace soon.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.