Belmont Stakes 2026: Best Longshot Pick for Today's Race

The Belmont Stakes features an exciting field of nine horses, including Golden Tempo and Renegade, the exacta from the Kentucky Derby. Both of those horses will inevitably take a lot of money because of their class and name recognition, but there is a horse who can upset them at double-digit odds.

The Kentucky Derby was a perfect race for closers: there were multiple one-way speed horses in the race, including the speeding-fast Six Speed. This time, there is nobody in the field who needs to lead. Therefore, the closers will get a poor setup. On the other hand, the horse who can seize the lead early will be in a great spot to set the pace all the way around.

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Longshot Pick for the 2026 Belmont

Why the Belmont Stakes 2026 Favorites Are Vulnerable

The best thing about the 2026 Belmont Stakes, from a betting perspective, is that several horses at the top of the market will be extremely overbet.

There’s the old adage that pace makes the race, and the pace in the Kentucky Derby was very different than the pace in the Belmont will be. Winner Golden Tempo rallied from last to first in the Run for the Roses, and second-place Renegade rallied from well off the running as well. Renegade is the 2-1 morning-line favorite, Golden Tempo is 9-2 on the morning line, and these price are too short to take as they go from a race where multiple horses needed the lead to one where no one does.

Chief Wallabee, 3-1 on the morning line, is also likely to be overbet. He will be closer to the pace than Golden Tempo and Renegade, and therefore less compromised. But, he’ll be heavily bet since his trainer and jockey, Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado, won the Belmont last year. And, even though he won’t be a deep closer, he still does his best running late – and has yet to get all the way to the wire first in a stakes race.

The Longshot Whose Case Keeps Getting Stronger

This all sets up for Powershift, 12-1 on the morning line, to be a live long shot in the Belmont Stakes.

Powershift has class to prove, as his last-out win came in a maiden special weight race on the Kentucky Derby undercard. However, the way he did it means the Belmont Stakes should set up well for him: he showed enough pace in that race, as well as in his maiden special weight debut at Tampa, to shape as pace. He may even be controlling pace, but if he’s not, he was able to prompt the pace and take over in his maiden win and should be fast enough to do so again in the Belmont Stakes.

He is trained by Todd Pletcher, who already has four Belmont Stakes winners. And, the switch to jockey Luis Saez may be the biggest key change in the entire Belmont Stakes. Saez is a two-time Belmont Stakes winner, including with longshot Dornoch in 2024. He won the Belmont that year on the front end, giving him the same kind of catch-me-if-you-can trip that should work out well again in this paceless bunch. And, that 2024 Belmont happened over the same course and distance as this one, 1 ¼ miles on the Saratoga dirt.

In the Belmont Stakes, if he stays anywhere near his 12-1 odds, he provides value in the win pool. He could also be useful for exotics as well, both because of his price and because he showed in his debut – a second-place finish behind Emerging Market – that he will continue to box on when headed late. So, if he does get caught in the stretch, he is the kind of horse who can keep running on and fill out those exotics.

The Value Math Behind Betting Belmont Longshots

Though not as much as the Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes is a race with casual money, players who just come to the track or bet races online during the Triple Crown or other major races. With that, horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby, particularly Kentucky Derby winners, tend to get overbet in the Belmont Stakes. This provides value on new shooters, or even horses coming from the Kentucky Derby who are less talked-about because they may have had a poor trip and finished off the board.

Pace can play into this value picture as well, especially in a year when the Kentucky Derby falls apart from a pace perspective. The smaller field in the Belmont compared to the Kentucky Derby means that there is less often a pace collapse in the Belmont, whether it’s at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga or 1 ½ miles at Belmont Park. When that’s the case, you’ll get better prices than you should on quality Belmont contenders.

Let’s talk about it in math terms. Horse racing prices are often discussed in fractional odds terms, but it’s more intuitive to convert them into implied probability: how often a horse has to win to break even on those odds.

Renegade’s morning line is 2-1, meaning you get $2 back for every $1 of your winning bet. A horse would have to win 33.3% of the time to break even on those odds. Renegade’s race-day odds may be even shorter; based on after-draw futures in sportsbooks, he could be as short as 8-5, which implies a 38.5% chance to win. Even if Renegade is the most likely winner, does he win a third of the time, almost two-fifths of the time, with a worse pace setup?

Compare that to Powershift. He has a pace advantage, he’s 12-1 on the morning line, and sportsbook futures suggest he should hold in the range of 10-1 to 12-1. Even if he shortens to 10-1? That only implies that he needs a 9.1% chance of winning the race to make a bet worth it. Even though he does need a step forward, with his pace advantage and powerful connections, it would still be fair to say he has in the range of a 12% chance to win the race. Converting implied odds back to betting odds, that’s 7.5-1: making that 10-1, 12-1 range a clear overlay.

What Could Strengthen or Hurt the Longshot Case

He already has a good pace setup if the field is full. However, a scratch of Growth Equity or Ottinho in particular would help his case even more. Those are the only two other horses in the Belmont Stakes who have shown any desire to be on or near the lead. Thus, if either of them scratches, then Powershift could set an even softer pace.

There is some chance of rain at Belmont on Saturday, which raises concerns since Powershift has never raced on an off-track. However, sire Constitution sires 17% off-track winners, and his dam has produced three wet-track winners. So, it would be no surprise to handle it.

The good news for Powershift is that there aren’t any scratches that would hurt his ability to get a good trip and help the favorites’ case. After all – the draw is final. There can only be scratches, no new additions to the field. The only worry would be if, say, both Growth Equity and Ottinho scratch? That would raise Powershift’s chances, but the public may disproportionately bet him on the lone speed angle.

Frequently Asked Questions: 2026 Belmont Stakes

Who is the morning line favorite for the 2026 Belmont Stakes?

Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., is the 2-1 morning line favorite for the 2026 Belmont Stakes. Renegade draws from post position 4 in the 9-horse field. Chief Wallabee, also trained by a top conditioner and ridden by Junior Alvarado out of post 3, is the second choice at 3-1, followed by Golden Tempo at 9-2. You can bet on the Belmont Stakes morning line favorite and the full field at FanDuel Racing.

When and where is the 2026 Belmont Stakes and what time is post time?

The 158th running of the Belmont Stakes takes place on Saturday, June 6, 2026, at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Post time for The Test of the Champion is 7:04 p.m. ET. This is the third and final year the race will be held at Saratoga while Belmont Park undergoes a full reconstruction project. The race is contested at 1¼ miles due to the configuration of Saratoga's main track, shorter than the traditional 1½-mile distance at Belmont Park. The Belmont Stakes will return to a newly reimagined Belmont Park beginning in 2027. New FanDuel Racing users can place their first bet of $10 and get $50 back in Racing Bonus ahead of race day.

How can I bet on the 2026 Belmont Stakes and are there any promotions available?

You can bet on the 2026 Belmont Stakes winner and all associated wagering markets at FanDuel Racing. Belmont Stakes odds are available across win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta markets. New FanDuel Racing users can take advantage of a promotional offer where you place your first bet of $10 on any race at any track and receive $50 back in Racing Bonus. Additional 2026 Belmont Stakes promos are available on FanDuel Racing. The full morning line odds for all 9 horses, including the 2-1 favorite Renegade and longshots Vitruvian Man at 30-1 and Ottinho at 20-1 — are listed above. Stay updated on live Belmont Stakes odds as they shift ahead of the Saturday, June 6 post time.

Which Belmont Stakes longshots have the best chance to win?

In general, horses with the stamina to handle the distance of the race are well set, as are horses with good tactical speed. Specifically for 2026, Powershift and Growth Equity are the most live long shots because they are expected to be forward in the pack.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.