A.J. Brown Is a Stud to Target in Fantasy Football This Season

The 2023 NFL season is less than two months away, meaning that we're approaching fantasy football draft season.
We want to be well-researched when heading into our drafts. So we need to look at what a player did last season, and how things could go for them in the upcoming season.
Here's a look at A.J. Brown, last season's WR5 in half-PPR scoring. He has become one of the best receivers in the game, and moving to the Philadelphia Eagles last season only helped him establish that.
A.J. Brown Overview
2022 Stats: 88 Receptions, 1496 Yards, 11 Touchdowns
2022 Fantasy Points: 255.6 Points
2023 Projected Points: 196.9 Points
numberFire 2023 Ranking: WR8
A.J. Brown Fantasy Football Outlook
An Elite Debut Season in Philly
The Eagles wanted to make a big splash at the wide receiver position at the 2022 draft. Instead of selecting a player, they decided to use their draft capital on trading for an established star. They used their first-round pick to trade for A.J. Brown.
The Eagles were hoping to pair Brown with DeVonta Smith and have an elite duo of receivers for Jalen Hurts to target. That's exactly how things played out. Smith went on to have the most receptions on the team (95), but Brown was the big-play threat that the Eagles needed.
Brown was already highly regarded of from his time with the Tennessee Titans, but he took it to another level with Philadelphia. He put up career-high marks in receptions and yards. There were concerns about the volume Brown would get on a run-heavy Eagles team. Philly did run the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, but that didn't hurt Brown one bit.
Brown has been one of the most efficient wideouts since entering the league in 2019. He hasn't played in high-volume passing offenses, so he hasn't ever had huge reception numbers. In half-PPR scoring, that doesn't really bother us when he can score touchdowns at the rate that he does.
Poised for Another Big Year
After his first season with the Eagles, there isn't much reason to expect anything but another great year.
Philadelphia was able to essentially maintain its roster from last season's Super Bowl run. They will still have an elite offensive line to protect Hurts and allow him to get the ball to Brown.
The Eagles didn't add any true competition for the main pass catchers, which should allow Brown to maintain a target share around the 28.7% mark we saw last season. With Smith on the other side and Dallas Goedert running routes from tight end, defenses probably won't be able to key in on Brown too much with their coverage.
Brown saw an average of 0.9 red-zone targets per game last season but was still able to score 11 times due to his big-play ability. If defenses find some sort of solution to the Eagles' push play, they could lean on Brown even more in the red zone.
Where Should Brown Be Drafted?
Currently on Fantasy Football Calculator, Brown's average draft position (ADP) is 14.1, which is the sixth receiver off the board on average. In FanDuel best-ball contests, he's also going as the WR6 with an ADP of 11.4.
That's a bit above where numberFire's projections put him; he's listed eighth. Projections tend to have a bit of difficulty accounting for how efficient Brown has been in his career. He doesn't get the volume of a typical elite receiver, but that has yet to matter for him.
He's in a tier with CeeDee Lamb and Davante Adams, both of whom will likely see more volume than Brown. They don't play with another pass-catcher as talented as Devonta Smith.
There is still a case to be made for Brown out of these three. Adams will be playing with a new quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, which is likely to be a bit of a downgrade. Lamb hasn't proven to be the same big-play threat in the NFL that Brown is, and the Dallas Cowboys are also expected to shift to an even heavier rushing attack with Mike McCarthy calling plays.
If Brown were to ever get elite volume, he has the upside to break into the top tier with the likes of Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Cooper Kupp considering his quarterback play. Getting him at a tier below that makes him a solid fantasy pick this year.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.