6 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 5/3/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Giants -1.5 (-132)

The opposing team has covered the run line in 19 of the Colorado Rockies's 32 games, and one of the exceptions came at 2.5. Why would today be much different?

Colorado sends Bradley Blalock to the mound with 20 mph winds blowing straight out to center. That's probably not going to help him lower 2.57 HR/9 allowed to this point, and the ineffectiveness isn't new. Blalock had a 6.58 xERA last season between two clubs.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants have the right guy on the mound for today's affair. Jordan Hicks has been unlucky to post a 6.12 ERA if his 3.92 xERA is any indication, and the converted reliever's 56.4% groundball rate will prove to be valuable in such blustery conditions.

As these righties square off, San Francisco (.698 team OPS vs. RHP) has been well ahead of Colorado (.633) in the split all season. This price seems fair to fade baseball's worst club.

Matt Chapman to Hit a Home Run (+420)

One of the bats that can help them get there is Matt Chapman.

Consider me surprised the shortest bat in these conditions is still north of +400, and Chappy has the ideal handedness and approach to get it done.

In his career, Blalock has allowed a 33.3% hard-hit rate and 20.0% flyball rate to lefties. Those numbers are 46.2% and 38.5%, respectively, against righties, making same-handed sluggers like Chapman an optimal fit.

Plus, the third baseman's 55.4% flyball rate is perfect to hoist one into the window. He's got a team-high 5 bombs in 105 plate appearances (PAs) against right-handed pitching this season.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.23 median home runs from him, so we'd have expected closer to +386 for a bomb.

Athletics at Miami Marlins

Marlins Moneyline in First 5 Innings (-140)

After dropping the series opener, the Miami Marlins have a great chance to bounce back here.

The Fish are 3-3 in Max Meyer's starts, but they managed to lose twice through quality starts. That's a common theme for Miami's league-worst 5.04 reliever xFIP -- and why we're dodging them entirely with this line.

Still, Meyer deserves his flowers. His 3.45 xERA is a consistent product with a hefty rate of groundballs (56.1%). He's a good match with the Athletics' boom-or-bust sluggers.

Osvaldo Bido hasn't been as effective as last year, either. Bido's 4.82 xERA has come with a concerning rate of flyballs (50.2%) and homers (1.72 HR/9).

I'll go five and dive with Miami's ace on Saturday.

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers Over 3.5 Runs (-150)

Jameson Taillon is a different pitcher away from Wrigley Field, opening the door to this pedestrian over on the Milwaukee Brewers' team total.

The right-hander has a 4.29 xFIP on the road compared to a 3.66 mark in the friendly confines. That's a narrower gap than his actual home (2.50) and road (5.74) ERA, too. Those results are troubling entering MLB's seventh-best park for home runs.

Milwaukee's .700 team OPS and 100 wRC+ against righties sit right around the league average, so if Taillon isn't on top of his game, they can pounce. Plus, the Chicago Cubs' bullpen has the third-worst xFIP in MLB (4.65) so far.

DRatings expects the Brew Crew to crest four runs about 62.6% of the time.

Jackson Chourio to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

If Milwaukee's offense is going to roll, Jackson Chourio's base prop is never a bad look.

Chourio's not off to the most sizzling start against right-handed pitching, totaling a .627 OPS, .187 ISO, and 81.7% medium-to-hard contact rate in the split to start 2025. The power numbers and decent contact splits are nice, though, when a double will cash his bases prop right away.

Why back Chourio? He's walked just twice in 95 PAs against righties this year. His walk rate was just 6.0% against them last year. Buddy is taking his cuts like me in MLB The Show 25.

We've got the outfielder projected for 1.76 median total bases on Saturday. Taillon's 76.8% contact rate is a natural fit for his "get it in play" approach.

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels

Jack Flaherty Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+130)

I'm waiting on this line to close out the night. Hopefully, the public will do their thing and push it to 7.5.

The "quick math" warriors will look see that the Los Angeles Angels' 26.1% K rate against righties is second-worst in MLB, and now, they're missing Mike Trout (knee). The problem with that line of thinking? Trout's 22.9% whiff rate against right-handers didn't hurt the cause much.

Jack Flaherty has also outperformed his 12.5% swinging-strike rate to post a 28.8% strikeout rate so far. His velocity is still a bit behind 2024's peak, and of course, he's coughed up 1.39 HR/9 to this stage as part of his average 3.81 xERA.

Yet, he's priced like a dominant ace tonight. FDR has Flaherty projected for just 6.00 median strikeouts, implying -154 odds he falls below seven. Even if the juice dynamic changes, this line shifting upward would be phenomenal. I think it will.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.