5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 8/17/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox

Red Sox -1.5 in First 5 Innings (-106)

Check your bullpens, people.

The Boston Red Sox's 'pen ranks 26th in reliever skill-interactive ERA (4.03 SIERA) over the last 30 days, so no thanks on the chances they could disrupt what, otherwise, figures to be an onslaught.

On the mound, Garrett Crochet (2.94 SIERA) should dismantle a Miami Marlins order with baseball's third-worst team OPS against southpaws (.617) over the past 30 days. Miami just lost Kyle Stowers to a side strain, as well.

At the dish, Boston draws Janson Junk, who has thrown junk most of 2025. Junk's 4.06 SIERA is actually better than you'd expect with immense trouble with generating whiffs (9.0% rate) and hard contact (47.5% rate; 7th percentile in MLB).

Crochet's ability to manage contact is a gigantic advantage with extreme winds out to center at Fenway today. While he'll likely track for a quality start, the Sox could hang a crooked number or two on Miami's struggling hurler.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Over 12.5 Runs (-122)

It's rare you see an MLB total this high.

Surprisingly, it's not the Colorado Rockies that are the sole offending party of why that's the case. Don't get me wrong; Antonio Senzatela's 5.23 SIERA and 11.1% K rate are awful. He's allowed 24 earned runs over his last five starts. He might also be the better pitcher today.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are turning to minor-league journeyman Nabil Crismatt at Coors Field. Good grief. Crismatt had a 4.90 xFIP in 100.1 innings with the Philadelphia Phillies' Triple-A squad this season before pitching two scoreless in Arizona's and getting this nod. I'm sure that'll hold.

When Arizona (4.43 xFIP) and Colorado (4.17) both have bottom-11 bullpens in the last month by most metrics, it's pretty easy to see how this total has been bet up here. Rockies games in August have featured an average of 13.4 runs, and I'm not sure the other side of the mound has brought a similar level of ineptitude quite like this yet.

Warming Bernabel to Record an RBI (+130)

In a game favored to see 13-plus markers, how is Warming Bernabel not favored to knock in a run?

From his usual projected sixth spot in the order, "Global Warming" has lit the baseball world ablaze in August. Specifically against righties like Crismatt, he's posted a .963 OPS, .309 ISO, and 38.3% hard-hit rate over the last 30 days. The end result? Driving in 8 runs over these 58 plate appearances (PAs).

7 of his 12 RBIs have come at home in eight fewer PAs, as well.

We just don't know a lot about Crismatt other than he hasn't really been effective at most MLB stops, and Arizona's bullpen has been bad for a month. FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.78 median RBIs today for Bernabel, implying closer to -118 odds for at least one.

Los Angeles Angels at Athletics

Angels Moneyline (-116)

It's a similar story in Sacramento to the one in Boston. One of these pitchers' ability to keep the ball on the ground will be paramount.

That's Jose Soriano of the Los Angeles Angels. His 66.5% groundball rate has worms everywhere shaking in their boots and is the direct answer to today's double-digit winds blowing out to left. Given concerns about Sutter Health Park's homer-happy tendencies, the righty has let up just 0.50 HR/9 this year.

It's been a different tune for Jeffrey Springs at home. The southpaw has a 4.66 xFIP in Sactown and has let up a predictable 1.86 HR/9 when considering a 47.0% flyball rate.

In these relevant splits over the last 30 days, the Athletics (.799 OPS) have outperformed the Angels (.777 OPS) offensively, but the Halos' bullpen (3.67 xFIP) has also been slightly more responsible than the As' (3.78).

The difference here is Soriano.

Zach Neto to Hit a Home Run (+310)

If Springs has issues with the long ball at Sutter Health, we should bet one.

Zach Neto went yaya on Friday for his 20th bomb of the year. Some may look at only 5 HRs against lefties this year and say he's a better bet in same-handed split, but Neto has homered in 5.6% of PAs against left-handers compared to 4.1% against righties. He just hasn't faced many.

The shortstop has also been performing well against southpaws recently, posting a .716 OPS, .158 ISO, and even better flyball (46.2%) and hard-hit (46.2%) rates than those numbers imply. He should regress upward if the contact holds.

Springs' handedness splits are as you'd expect, too. He's coughed up 1.71 HR/9 to opposite-handed sticks compared to 0.89 HR/9 to same-handed ones.

FDR projects Neto for 0.29 median home runs, which just sneaks into value range at +297 implied odds. He's the only Angel in that territory, per the projections.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.