2 Best MLB Bets and Player Props for Mariners at Mets on Sunday 8/17/25

Even within a single MLB game, you've got countless betting markets to choose from.

Which ones stand out today as the Seattle Mariners take on the New York Mets?

It's a rubber match for these interleague squads fighting for a Wild Card spot on their respective circuits. The M's won a barnburner on Friday, and the Mets rode a great Nolan MacLean outing to a win on Saturday. Who has the edge tonight?

We're going to run through my favorites in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can also check out FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections if you want a glimpse at projected strikeouts, home runs, and more.

Now, let's dig into the best bets for this game.

Betting Picks for Mariners at Mets

Under 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-120)

In a game that feels like a playoff sort of environment, we could see playoff-level pitching between George Kirby and Clay Holmes.

Kirby has shaken off an early-season injury -- and following slump -- to post what is truly a masterful season on paper. The righty's 3.32 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is sharp, and he's currently pacing for a career-high mark in strikeout rate (26.3%). Kirby has also allowed just 0.95 HR/9 on a near-league-average homer-to-flyball ratio (11.7%).

New York's Holmes can match him, though. The converted reliever's 4.33 SIERA is solid -- even if it's tailed off a bit in the second half. Like Kirby, he's had no issues in the homer category (0.86 HR/9) thanks to a gigantic 56.5% groundball rate.

As these two collide at MLB's ninth-friendliest park for pitchers, I can't see either getting blown up.

Clay Holmes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+126)

This Mariners matchup could bring out the best in Holmes' strikeout upside, too.

Seattle has punched out at the fourth-highest rate (24.1%) against righties in the past 30 days. That's a particular category where Eugenio Suarez (27.8% K vs. RHP) won't exactly help.

Though not necessarily intuitive, Holmes switched his pitch usage two starts ago and has compiled 10 Ks (and a 25.6% K rate) in the pair of outings. He threw his sinker over 60.0% of the time in both starts and phased out the cutter, which could be why his changeup and slider increased in effectiveness as put away pitches.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 4.60 median strikeouts in 5.10 innings. Plus money is extremely attractive, and I think the reason this line is so low is Holmes' season-long K rate (18.9%) being somewhat poor.

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Which bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.