5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 6/15/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles

Over 8.5 Runs (-115)

I badly wanted to take the Los Angeles Angels' moneyline to target the classic system of teams avoiding a sweep on Sunday. With concerns of their own, the over is the move.

L.A. should score on Cade Povich. Povich's dismal 5.46 ERA is somehow worse by xERA (6.08) with contact issues across the board. He's definitely overperforming in the strikeout column (23.7% rate) when generating a whiff on just 9.2% of his pitches.

However, Yusei Kikuchi is one of the sport's most overvalued hurlers. With a decent reputation, Kikuchi's 2.92 ERA checks out in theory, but his 4.78 xERA is much worse with elevated flyball (41.4%) and hard-hit (40.6%) rates allowed. He should have a homer issue but hasn't thanks to a lucky homer-to-flyball ratio (8.7% HR:FB).

To my surprise, both the Angels (.710) and Baltimore Orioles (.690) have top-15 team OPS marks against left-handed pitching in the past month. These are definitely two vulnerable southpaws.

Zach Neto to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Cashing an Angel in the homer market yesterday, I'd like to mix it up. There are 29 other teams. We'll have to stay with L.A.'s other team today, though.

Povich's "contact issues" are non-starters. He's 5th percentile or worse across all of baseball in hard-hit (50.3%) and barrel (13.1%) rates allowed. 41.0% of balls have been in the air against him, too. That wraps into 1.48 HR/9 allowed, and Zach Neto can add another.

The Halos just haven't had many plate appearances (PAs) against lefties recently, but Neto has starred in them. Across 25 PAs in the past 30 days, the shortstop's .802 OPS, .261 ISO, 47.1% flyball rate, and 64.7% (!) hard-hit rate with the platoon advantage look closer to prime Mike Trout than Zach Neto. He's got two bombs in this sample and will have chances today from Los Angeles' leadoff spot.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections are on board. Forecasting 0.28 median home runs for Neto in Sunday's tilt, we'd have set him closer to +310 for a bomb.

Athletics at Kansas City Royals

Under 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-114)

Shockingly, the Kansas City Royals are trying to avoid a sweep against the Athletics, and they might have the right man for the job.

Top prospect Noah Cameron has shoved thus far. The lefty has a 3.31 xERA and .229 xBA allowed that both rank 70th percentile or better across baseball. He's allowed a barrel on just 5.3% of balls in play. He shouldn't have many issues with the Athletics' .651 team OPS against left-handers in the past 30 days, which is especially poor considering their home ballpark.

K.C.'s offensive issues could continue in earnest, though. The Royals are one of the nine clubs worse than the A's in the aforementioned stat (.624) with a pitiful .099 ISO in this time. They'll battle lefty Jeffrey Springs, who might be a victim of Sutter Health Park. His 4.08 xERA trumps his actual (4.64), and he's somewhat shined with a 3.95 ERA on the road.

I can't trust the Athletics' bullpen, but both starters are facing offenses that struggle in their split. This is a generous mark likely birthed by MLB's seventh-best park for hitters, but that hasn't mattered all season. The under has cashed in 22 of K.C.'s 37 home games (59.5%).

Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers

Rangers Over 4.5 Runs (-108)

Aaron Civale should be careful what he asks for.

Civale had the gall to request a trade despite being one of the league's least effective starters in 2025. He's surrendered 2.05 HR/9 on the back of massive flyball (57.1%) and barrel (9.1%) rates allowed, and he's missed a bat on a career-low 8.8% of his pitches. In his first start with a new team, a 6.57 road ERA -- and the trade request -- show a bit of resistance to change, no?

Enjoy the Chicago White Sox. The Texas Rangers can tattoo a combination of Civale and MLB's fourth-worst skill-interactive ERA from their relievers (3.85 SIERA) today.

It's been another difficult season at the dish for Texas, but they're starting to show signs of breaking out. They've mustered an improved .693 team OPS against righties in the past 30 days that should continue a slow climb with Corey Seager back in the fold.

Civale hasn't topped 85 pitches yet this season, so we'll get a good chunk of the White Sox's 'pen. It's rare to see a team total this low against them with that the case.

Jake Burger to Record 2+ Total Bases (+105)

There's some sort of prophecy in the stars about Jake Burger potentially being the one to get after Civale, right?

The former disgruntled White Sox slugger is off to a decent start with his third MLB club in Arlington. Against righties in the past 30 days, Burger's power (.195 ISO) has certainly topped his efficiency (82 wRC+). Low-whiff hurlers like Civale are ideal to help manage his 22.6% K rate.

I want to target his contact splits in this time, which show an 80.9% medium-to-hard contact rate and 47.6% flyball rate. He's also on the correct side of the dish when Civale's xFIP against righties (5.77) is much worse than when facing lefties (4.29).

FDR projects Burger for a whopping 2.23 median total bases. I wish his homer prop (+340) came at a slightly better number, but I want to bet on damage in some form.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.