5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 6/21/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Texas Rangers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Under 8.5 Runs (-110)

I've watched these two offenses enough to count them out despite a warm day next to the Allegheny on Saturday.

Even in just the last 30 days, the Texas Rangers (.688) and Pittsburgh Pirates (.674) both have a bottom-10 team OPS against right-handed pitching, and I'd argue it's even been recent improvement. Today's orthodox-handed pitchers aren't perfect, but one of them should be favored to shove.

Mitch Keller is probably the favorite for most. Keller is tracking for his fourth straight season with a skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) between 3.90 and 4.20. He's just a solid, responsible pitcher who lives off a decent share of groundballs (45.8% rate).

Kumar Rocker is a bit more of a wild card, but the prospect's 11.6% swinging-strike rate is a good indication of his stuff against a Buccos lineup that will punch out (23.8% K rate vs. RHP in last month). Rocker's 7.31 ERA might also be filled with bad luck when his SIERA (3.85) is actually even lower than Keller's.

Both of these bullpens also dodge the bottom 10 SIERAs across MLB in the past 30 days. There's enough here to think the bats for both clubs might get shut down again.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Mets Over 4.5 Runs (-132)

This is a pick 'em game with a total of 10.0. I have much more confidence in the New York Mets to win a race to five runs than a Philadelphia Phillies team still without Bryce Harper.

A huge part of that is Philly's pitching staff. Mick Abel's 2.21 ERA seems to be living on borrowed time when his SIERA (3.82) is far more plain. The contact splits get worse; Abel has allowed a 54.3% hard-hit rate in the last month that is second-highest among every MLB pitcher to complete 10.0 innings. He's not keeping a hefty groundball rate for the season (37.3%), either.

The Phillies' bullpen also has the second-worst SIERA in MLB over the past 30 days (4.18).

New York's star-studded attack has begun to find its groove as Juan Soto has heated up with the ambient temperature. The Mets are fourth in team OPS against righties over the past 30 days (.797) behind Soto's improved .918 OPS in these parameters.

I could have taken the Mets to win (-106), but Griffin Canning's 4.35 SIERA is inconsistent enough to stick to just their offensive expectations.

Pete Alonso to Record an RBI (+105)

A huge part of those expectations is Pete Alonso.

Surely to be a threat at this year's Home Run Derby, "The Polar Bear" is entering off a career year. His work in same-handed splits is truly impressive. Over the past 30 days, Alonso has mustered a 1.086 OPS, .364 ISO, 45.8% flyball rate, and 45.8% hard-hit rate against righties. That's a sample of 88 plate appearances (PAs).

It's really a continuation of a .997 OPS versus righties for the entire season to this point, which is why he didn't get the shout over Soto as to the team's recent rise.

Alonso is +225 in the home run market at FanDuel, but I'd rather stick to an RBI at plus money itself. The first baseman has 55 RBI across 254 PAs this season in this split, and Mick Abel nor the Phils' ailing bullpen will represent quality ones.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.74 ribbies from Alonso on Saturday, implying closer to -110 odds for one if correct.

Cleveland Guardians at Athletics

Athletics Moneyline (+110)

The Athletics went through a tumultuous stretch around Memorial Day with their bullpen, but they've won six of their last eight games as it has turned around. They shouldn't be plus money to the Cleveland Guardians in this current form.

Sacramento (kind of) will start Mitch Spence on Saturday, and Spence's game has fit homer-friendly Sutter Health Park well. One of the reasons he's turned in a 3.50 ERA and 3.74 SIERA is a high groundball rate (43.7%), which is an organic fit for a Cleveland team that's got the third-worst hard-hit rate against righties this season (28.4%).

Cleveland cedes the pitching edge today. In addition to their bullpen (3.78 SIERA) not performing as well as the Athletics' (2.91) over the past 30 days, Luis Ortiz (4.14 SIERA) is a slightly less effective pitcher than Spence across the board. His 1.19 HR/9 is high enough to be concerning in this Triple-A stadium.

Even if the pitching was close, the A's have a top-10 team OPS against righties over the past month (.767). Cleveland (.679) isn't close. Especially with momentum entering this game, I'll back the A's to make it seven dubs in nine tries.

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers

Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Any baseball bettor frequents the late-night Los Angeles Dodgers, and this is a good matchup for props and scoring for the defending champs.

L.A. hosts Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals in the second game of this series, and Irvin's confidence can't be high entering the lion's den. He's let up 16 earned in his last four starts, including 3 to the Colorado Rockies over 6.0 innings that shouldn't be allowed to count as an opponent-adjusted quality start.

Overall, Irvin's 40.8% flyball and 45.8% hard-hit rate allowed have led to permitting 1.41 HR/9. That's come with 1.81 HR/9 to lefties compared to 0.91 HR/9 to righties. While Shohei Ohtani is pretty short in this market, I think Max Muncy might have the best outright prospects for a big fly.

Muncy is raking against righties over the past month, totaling a .667 SLG, .337 ISO, 47.2% flyball rate, and 43.4% hard-hit rate in 85 PAs. His six bombs in these parameters are tied for the team lead with Shohei, yet he comes at +430 compared to the designated hitter's +182 odds?

Our projections forecast 0.24 median home runs for Muncy on Saturday. We'd set him closer to +369 for a bomb.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.