5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 5/31/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays

George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Our projections are speaking loudly enough about a "Springer Dinger" to back one on Saturday.

George Springer has been a bit unlucky against right-handed pitching this season. Across 156 plate appearances (PAs), the outfielder's .746 OPS and .143 ISO in the split are fine but not eye-catching. Then, you look at his contact metrics with elevated flyball (37.9%) and hard-hit (38.9%) rates.

His home run to flyball ratio (5.6% HR:FB) is significantly below the league average (11.5%). Loud outs only last so long.

Though the Toronto Blue Jays largely struggle against righties like Gunnar Hoglund, it wouldn't be a surprise if they got after him. Hoglund's miserable xERA (5.45) shows elevated flyball (42.0%) and hard-hit (42.0%) rates allowed himself, and the wheels have come off the Athletics' bullpen. They've got the worst bullpen skill-interactive ERA this month (4.28 SIERA).

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.31 median home runs for Springer on Saturday, implying closer to +275 odds for one.

Colorado Rockies at New York Mets

Over 8.0 Runs (-112)

Surprisingly, the New York Mets couldn't get after Kyle Freeland on Friday. They'll flip to their stronger side of the dish against a much weaker pitcher today.

The one positive for Colorado Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela is a hefty groundball rate (53.1%). That said, when you're giving up 1.50 HR/9 anyway, the theory somewhat dissipates. Notably, Senzatela's xFIP is actually much worse on the road (5.30) than it is at Coors Field (3.95).

The Mets have mashed righties for a .737 team OPS (7th in MLB) this season, but I wanted to bring the Rockies into this team total, too. Kodai Senga can't dance out of danger forever, and it'd be funny if Colorado was the team to crack him.

Senga's 1.46 ERA shows a 4.32 SIERA behind it because he walks a ton of guys (11.4%) and has allowed plenty of hard contact (43.0%). These are also two of MLB's bottom-11 bullpens in SIERA this month.

Be careful laying New York's hefty run line today. Both of these pitchers are vulnerable.

Mark Vientos to Record an RBI (+125)

I'll stick on the home side for a prop that's undervalued, though.

Hitting fifth or sixth, Mark Vientos is in a prime spot to knock in a run as Senzatela's 84.4% contact run will, undoubtedly, put ducks on the pond. Vientos has helped pick up the slack for an offense that shows both Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo struggling. The infielder has a .736 OPS and .157 ISO across 158 PAs in the split.

You'll want righties in the prop market against Senza. He's allowed a 42.9% hard-hit rate to them versus 31.9% to lefties. Righties also make up eight of Senzatela's nine home runs allowed in 2025.

Our projections expect 0.58 median RBIs in Saturday's game. Though it's always a best practice, I'd shop this line to get the best number as it skates right on the edge of value.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres

Padres -1.5 in First 5 Innings (+114)

The San Diego Padres won Friday's series opener with the Pittsburgh Pirates. They might dominate tonight's outing.

San Diego sends Dylan Cease's sparkling 3.29 SIERA and 29.1% strikeout rate to the bump tonight. Don't let his 4.58 ERA fool you; the right-hander has been extremely effective this season. He'll nearly hop back to Triple-A to battle the Buccos' .648 team OPS (29th in MLB) against righties this season.

At the dish, the Friars will attack lefty Bailey Falter, whose 3.47 ERA is on the opposite side of Cease's fortune. His SIERA (4.79) is much worse with flyball (43.1%) and hard-hit (43.8%) rates that are fuel for round-trippers.

Surprisingly, the Padres' bullpen (3.82 SIERA in May) is struggling a bit. While San Diego is primed to potentially make it not matter, I actually prefer the five-inning runline to the full-game mark at a better number.

Jackson Merrill to Record 2+ Total Bases (-120)

Falter is another pitcher with extreme reverse splits.

This season, the southpaw has allowed 1.59 HR/9 to southpaws compared to just 0.74 HR/9 to left-handed batters. Lefty sluggers have a 95.5% medium-to-hard contact rate against him. Falter doesn't see lefties nearly as often, but when he does, it appears he struggles.

Jackson Merrill is a perfect candidate to take advantage of that. Merrill tattoos left-handed pitching himself, posting an .823 OPS, .270 ISO, and 32.4% hard-contact rate in the split. Importantly for a bases prop, the outfielder has walked in just 2.6% of PAs against same-handed pitchers.

FDR projects Merrill for 2.45 median total bases on Saturday. This prop is showing extreme value, and a home run (+420) isn't a bad look, either.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.