3 Strikeout Props to Target for Monday 6/3/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Props to Target for Monday 6/3/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-136)

The Toronto Blue Jays have the fourth-lowest strikeout percentage (K%) in baseball, which is leading to Grayson Rodriguez's small strikeout total of only 5.5. The second-year pitcher has improved most of his stats as he carries a 3.53 ERA and 3.62 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) compared to a 4.35 ERA and 4.01 SIERA in his rookie campaign. Rodriguez's strikeout percentage has also jumped from 25.0% to 27.9%.

This has been a very reliable pitcher in the K department, for Rodriguez has reached six strikeouts in seven of nine starts this season. His recent production easily passes the eye test with 24 Ks over his previous three outings (8.0 per start). Will Rodriguez do the usual against a low-strikeout squad?

One of Rodriguez's issues has been hard-hit percentage (bottom 23%), but the Blue Jays are tied for the 13th-lowest hard-hit percentage. Plus, the O's starter has already managed to avoid home runs, giving up only two dingers over his last seven starts. Toronto has the sixth-lowest home run percentage. Giving up extra-base hits is less of a worry for this matchup, potentially contributing to a longer start for Rodriguez.

Toronto has the ninth-fewest runs above average against fastballs and sliders. Rodriguez's most-used pitch is his four-seam fastball (47.0%), and his slider touts the highest K% among his pitches (35.9%). Baltimore's hurler has the heat and breaking ball to reach six strikeouts.

FanDuel Research's projections also have Rodriguez tabbed for 6.08 Ks.

Nathan Eovaldi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

It's been an excellent season for Nathan Eovaldi, for he's carrying a career-best 2.84 ERA and a 3.79 SIERA (fifth-best of his career). His K% also sits at 25.3% -- which is Eovaldi's best mark since 25.5% in 2021.

Predicting Eovaldi's strikeout total against the Detroit Tigers could be tricky due to a recent injury. Eovaldi came off the 15-day injured list due to a groin injury on May 28th. The Texas Rangers' ace had only 37 pitches and was pulled following the third inning. If he has another short start like this, the under for his 4.5 strikeout total (+110) would probably be a layup.

Taking the under has everything to do with Eovaldi's pitch count against the Tigers. He ranks in the 68th percentile of K% and was averaging 6.3 strikeouts per start prior to injury. The Tigers are tied for the eighth-highest strikeout percentage in baseball and are averaging 10.4 Ks per game over the last five (8.81 is their season average). If Eovaldi gets a decent start, he clearly has the stuff to make the over happen.

However, I can't overlook the 37-pitch count in his first game back from injury. He will likely be on a limited pitch count once again. When do you ever see a pitcher returning from injury go from 37 pitches to 90? It doesn't happen often. I'd be surprised if Eovaldi hit 70 pitches tonight. The argument for another short start is there, and +110 for the under makes this even more worthwhile.

Matt Waldron to Record 6+ Strikeouts (+200)

The Los Angeles Angels are tied for the eighth-highest K% in MLB and logged 9.7 strikeouts per game in their last series (compared to a season average of 8.73). This is an excellent matchup for the San Diego Padres' Matt Waldron, who is averaging 8.3 Ks per start over his previous three appearances.

Considering the Angels' swing-happy batting order, the over for Waldron's 4.5 strikeout total looks like the obvious choice. However, I'm looking for even more value by backing 6+ strikeouts for Waldron (+200). The odds suggest that this could be a longshot, but let's take a minute to look at the evidence.

First off, Waldron has the recent production as he's reached six strikeouts in four consecutive starts. His 24.2 K% (63rd percentile) won't blow your socks off. Waldron's knuckleball carries the load with a 38.8 K% while his next-best K% is 21.4%, courtesy of his four-seam fastball. The knuckleball is also his most-used pitch with a 37.4% usage rate.

Among the 10 teams that have seen knuckleballs, Los Angeles has the lowest runs above average against the pitch. If Waldron's best strikeout pitch is working, it should be another successful day on the mound.

The Angels' lineup isn't very intimidating, either, with the 12th-fewest runs while being tied for the 12th-lowest weighted on-base percentage (wOBA). A quality start for Waldron could lead to even more strikeouts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.