MLB

3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 4/3/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB Strikeout Prop Bets

Trevor Williams Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-158)

The Washington Nationals are at the bottom of their starting rotation as Trevor Williams will make his first appearance of the 2024 season against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Williams struggled last season with a 5.55 earned run average (ERA) while totaling only 111 strikeouts in 30 starts; that's an average of 3.7 Ks per start.

As you can tell, Williams isn't exactly a strikeout savant. He finished in the bottom 11% in strikeout rate (K%) and bottom 6% in swinging-strike rate in 2023. His off-speed pitches were a major issue, ranking in the bottom 7% in run value.

The Pirates' offense is off to an excellent start with the fourth-most runs in the MLB while chasing only 28.6% of pitches out of the strike zone (seventh-best). Pittsburgh has also smashed some of the off-speed pitches in Williams' toolbox. This includes a changeup and slider, which the Pirates' runs above average against both pitches ranks among the top 16 in baseball. The slider, in particular, has been Pittsburgh's forte with the third-best runs above average against that pitch.

Considering Williams' low K numbers last season and the Pirates' hot start, give me the under for the Nats' starter.

Cristian Javier Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-142)

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Houston Astros meet in a clash between potential playoff squads. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB playoff odds, the Astros are -290 to make the postseason while the Blue Jays are -136.

For the series finale, we get a promising pitching matchup between Chris Bassitt and Cristian Javier. I'm targeting Houston's starter for this game. Javier had a strong performance in his season-opening outing, recording six Ks while giving up no runs in six innings of work.

Javier's K% won't blow your socks off as it was 23.1% in the 2023 season (bottom 48%). However, he typically gives the Astros a good amount of innings, averaging more than five innings pitched per appearance last season. With deeper outings, he has more chances for strikeouts.

I like Javier's chances of reaching the five-strikeout mark tonight. He faced the Jays once in 2023 and totaled five strikeouts in that game. Javier's fastball was elite last season, ranking in the 89th percentile in fastball run value. Meanwhile, Toronto's success against fastballs has slightly dipped to start the season. They had the 10th-best mark in fastball runs above average in 2023 and now sit at 13th in the category thus far.

Of course, it can be difficult to judge various stats with such small sample sizes early in the season. Still, Javier has reached five Ks in six of his last seven starts dating back to last season. I like him to do it again today.

Kyle Harrison Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-166)

Most eyes could be on Tyler Glasnow's strikeout props for the matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. Glasnow ranked in the 97th percentile of K% last season and logged eight strikeouts in his Dodgers debut. However, I'm looking at the guy who is taking the rubber for the Giants.

Kyle Harrison made his MLB debut late in the 2023 season and posted a 4.15 ERA in seven starts. Entering the 2024 campaign, Harrison was expected to have a major role in the middle of the starting rotation. He carries the sixth-shortest odds to win National League Rookie of the Year (+1400), per FanDuel's NL Rookie of the Year odds.

How did Harrison fare in his first start of the season? So far, so good. The rookie starter gave up two runs while totaling five Ks in six innings.

Obviously, the Dodgers' offense is a heck of a challenge, but through two matchups, L.A. has averaged 10.5 strikeouts per night in this series. I believe the opportunity is there for Harrison to go over 4.5 Ks. The Dodgers also have the 12th-worst K% through eight games.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.