3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 4/10/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 4/10/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MLB Strikeout Prop Bets

Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+116)

The San Diego Padres' Dylan Cease has excelled as the team's third starter in the rotation and will make his third appearance in a rubber match against the Chicago Cubs. Through two starts, Cease has logged 13 Ks paired with a 30.2% strikeout percentage (K%), which ranks in the 80th percentile.

Cease's strikeout production is within character as the right-handed pitcher was in the 93rd, 88th, and 77th percentiles over his last three seasons. The notable K total of 6.5 makes sense after digging into his production.

However, I believe Cease could fan fewer batters than usual tonight. The Cubs have enjoyed a hot start with the second-most runs in the MLB (71). They've also shown excellent plate discipline, carrying the 7th-best K%, 11th-best swinging-strike percentage, and 3rd-best swing rate at pitches outside of the strike zone.

Last season, Cease's bread and butter was making batters swing and miss as he sat in the 77th percentile of whiff rate. The Cubs are rarely swinging and missing so far, and they had the 10th-best swinging-strike percentage in 2023.

The ideal matchup is there for the under to hit. It won't take much more convincing for me with the odds sitting at +116.

Marcus Stroman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)

FanDuel is offering a 30% Profit Boost for any live wager for the Miami Marlins against the New York Yankees tonight. With this offer in mind, many could be more inclined to target lines for this matchup. Are there any strikeout props worth taking?

Over 4.5 strikeouts for Marcus Stroman is the way to go. Following the second All-Star appearance of his career in 2023, Stroman has not disappointed in the Yanks' pinstripes, carrying a 3.83 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) thus far.

After giving up no runs while pitching in six innings over his last two outings, Stroman could be good for another deep start. The Marlins have not been the most dangerous lineup, totaling the eighth-fewest runs this season after having the fifth-fewest runs in 2023. Miami also has the highest ground-ball percentage in the MLB (50.3%), and Stroman had an excellent 57.1% ground-ball percentage in 2023. He was in the 86th percentile of hard-hit percentage last season; Stroman will likely continue to limit hard hits tonight, giving further support for a deep outing.

Of course, the longer that Stroman pitches, the more Ks he could stack up. New York's starter is averaging 5.0 strikeouts per start so far. Additionally, the Marlins have the worst swing percentage at pitches out of the strike zone early in the season, and Stroman has increased his chase rate from the 24th percentile last season to the 39th percentile through two starts in 2024.

All in all, I'm backing the over for Stroman's K total.

Ross Stripling Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-111)

Ross Stripling started only 11 of 22 appearances in 2023 after primarily being a starter in the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Stripling is back to a regular starting role with the Oakland Athletics, who face the Texas Rangers on Wednesday.

The veteran right-hander was in the bottom 16% of strikeout rate last season and has jumped to the 30th percentile in this category after two starts. It's been mainly due to ranking in the 77th percentile in chase rate. Stripling was in the 93rd percentile for this stat in 2022. He's capable of carrying this excellent mark from start to finish.

Texas is tied for the 10th-best mark in swing percentage at pitches outside of the strike zone this season, though. They also boasted the fifth-best mark in the category last season. The defending champs are not easy to strike out with the second-best K% in baseball (18.0%).

A starter who carries a poor strikeout rate is facing a team that rarely strikes out. This one is not complicated, hence Stripling's 3.5 strikeout total. He faced the Rangers once last season and totaled only 3 Ks in five innings.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.