3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 4/23/24

Riley Thomas•_riley8

10d

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

J.P. France Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-113)

J.P. France had underwhelming strikeouts numbers for the Houston Astros in his rookie season, and through four starts, these numbers have carried over to 2024. France currently sits in the bottom 17% in strikeout percentage (K%). He managed to improve his whiff and chase rates, going from the bottom 9% to 21% in chase and the bottom 19% to 45% in whiff.

Still, France's numbers have not been jumping out of the box score. In fact, he's failed to reach five Ks in three consecutive starts. Today's strikeout prop is set at 4.5, making the under an enticing side.

Tuesday's opponent -- the Chicago Cubs -- only hammers home the under. The Cubs have the 14th-lowest K%.

Additionally, there's a decent chance that France could be pulled early. Chicago has scored the sixth-most runs and owns the second-highest hard-hit percentage in baseball. France is in the bottom 9% in ground-ball percentage and carries an underwhelming 4.99 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).

Considering France's weak strikeouts numbers and the Cubs' dangerous batting order, I'm loving the under for Houston's starter.

Steven Matz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-156)

For my second strikeout prop of the day, I'm targeting one that feels "safe." The St. Louis Cardinals' Steven Matz has a tough matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Matz already has meh numbers, per Savant. He is among the bottom 25% in chase rate, whiff percentage, and K%. Matz has not reached five strikeouts in any of his four starts this season, totaling only 12 Ks.

Arizona is as stingy as it gets when it comes to Ks. After carrying the fourth-lowest K% last season (20.4%), the Diamondbacks have gotten even better in the category and boast the MLB's lowest K% at 17.1%.

Chase rate is Matz's current best stat in the strikeout department, but Arizona simply does not swing at many pitches outside of the zone. The D-Backs chase the ninth-fewest pitches outside of the strike zone.

This one is pretty simple to me. Matz has rarely struck out batters, and Arizona has elite discipline thus far. I'm backing the under for Matz on Tuesday.

Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)

The Colorado Rockies have been an easy team to rack up Ks on. They average 9.9 strikeouts per game (fourth-most) and have totaled at least 9 Ks each contest over the last four. This continues to remain true, and the San Diego Padres' Michael King comes off an impressive performance with 10 strikeouts.

King has encouraging Savant numbers, ranking in the 65th percentile in K% and in the 61st percentile for whiff rate. This isn't overperforming early in the season, either, as King was in the 88th percentile in K% and the 73rd percentile of whiff rate in 2023.

However, King has declined when it comes to limiting hard contact. After sitting in the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 63rd percentile of barrel percentage last season, King is currently in the bottom 48% in hard-hit percentage and 17% in barrel percentage.

Fortunately, the Rockies haven't been a daunting order, carrying the 11th-worst slugging percentage and 9th-lowest line-drive percentage.

Not only does Colorado lack the slugging to expose King's weakness, but they also swing and miss a lot. The Rockies are tied for the second-highest K% and the second-highest swinging-strike percentage.

While acknowledging that any Coors start is scary, these -104 odds are pretty appealing in my eyes.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.