3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Tuesday 4/16/24

Riley Thomas•_riley8

3mo

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Ranger Suarez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)

The Philadelphia Phillies have their second of three games against the Colorado Rockies taking place on Tuesday. Yesterday, Philadelphia's Aaron Nola flourished against one of baseball's worst batting orders, recording nine strikeouts.

Targeting the Phillies' starter once again could spell success. The Rockies are currently numberFire's second-worst team in the MLB, and they are projected to finish the regular season with the 12th-fewest runs in the MLB, per FanGraphs' Depth Chart projections.

Ranger Suarez will take the mound for Philly. The southpaw's strikeout percentage (K%) is way up through three starts. Suarez is ranking in the 83rd percentile in K%; his previous career-high was the 63rd percentile in the 2021 season.

I like his chances of reaching at least seven Ks for the third time this season. Suarez excels at making batters chase, sitting in the top half of chase rate. He ranked in the 61st percentile in the category last season and is currently in the 59th percentile. Meanwhile, Colorado is tied for the second-worst chase rate in baseball. The Rockies also finished with the second-worst chase rate in MLB last season.

Carlos Rodon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)

I'm going for another juicy line in this New York Yankees-Toronto Blue Jays matchup, but this time I'm backing an under.

Carlos Rodon is off to a decent start, carrying a 4.84 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). This is about on par with his 4.87 SIERA from 14 starts last season. After ranking in the 96th and 95th percentiles of K% in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Rodon dropped to the bottom 41% in the category last year. He's produced at about the same rate thus far, sitting in the bottom 33% of K%.

The Yanks' starter has surpassed four strikeouts in two of three outings. He gets a tough matchup against a disciplined Blue Jays batting order.

Toronto had the sixth-best K% last season while carrying the seventh-best chase rate and fifth-best swinging-strike percentage. These impressive marks have carried over to the 2024 season, for the Blue Jays have the eighth-best K%, the third-best chase rate, and third-best swinging-strike percentage.

Chase rate has been a consistent strength for Rodon; he's been among the top 43% in the category for four consecutive seasons, including the 2024 campaign.

Toronto doesn't really swing at many pitches outside of the strike zone. Plus, Rodon's K% is already underwhelming. The under for Rodon's total is a strong bet, especially with the +112 odds.

Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

The Cleveland Guardians' Tanner Bibee has essentially been feast or famine in the early going. In two starts, Bibee logged only two and four Ks, but he was on fire with nine strikeouts on April 4th. Which Bibee will we get for tonight's clash against the Boston Red Sox?

I don't think we will see Bibee get close to 10 Ks, but going over 5.5 feels within reach. His K% is only 23.1% (53rd percentile). Bibee's whiff rate has been very impressive, ranking in the 72nd percentile of the category. He was in the top half of whiff percentage last season, as well.

Why are we circling the righty's whiff rate? Boston is tied for the sixth-worst swinging-strike percentage in baseball. This has also led to the Red Sox having the fourth-worst K% in the MLB.

Boston is currently averaging 10.1 strikeouts per game (fourth-worst), and this concerning rate has continued over their last four games with 9.5 Ks each contest. Considering Bibee's ability to make batters swing and miss early in the season, give me Cleveland's starter to reach six strikeouts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.