NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 3/6/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 3/6/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Franz Wagner Over 24.5 Pts + Reb (-118)

The upward-trending Orlando Magic will visit the struggling Washington Wizards tonight, and no one seems more fit to take advantage of this ultra-friendly matchup than Franz Wagner.

On the season, Wagner is averaging 26.1 combined points and rebounds (PR). Considering the elements of this matchup, I'd be surprised if Wagner doesn't, at the very least, reach his PR average tonight.

For starters, the Wizards surrender the second-most points and the second-most rebounds per game to small forwards.

Washington also lets up the ninth-most three-point makes (3PM) to small forwards as well as the most paint points overall. Wagner, meanwhile, nets a combined 79.3% of his points from behind the arc or in the paint.

The Wizards suffer with the worst defensive rating in the NBA. Historically, Wagner owns poor defensive teams. He has played in 13 games against teams that rank in the bottom five of defensive rating. In this split, he averaged 28.7 PR and exceeded 24.5 PR in 9 out of 13 games.

Wagner has shown even more encouraging signs when going up against teams that play at a fast pace. He has suited up for 11 games against teams in the top five of pace. In this split, he is averaging a towering 31.7 PR and surpassed 24.5 PR in 10 out of 11 games.

Luckily for him, Washington plays at the NBA's fastest pace, both on the season and across their last 15 games.

This should be a perfect game environment for Wagner, so I'm happy to side with the over.

FanDuel Research's projections, which are powered by numberFire, also like this prop, anticipating Wagner to record 26.0 PR this evening.

Collin Sexton Over 26.5 Pts + Ast (-122)

In mid-December, Collin Sexton joined the starting lineup for the Utah Jazz, and he hasn't looked back since.

In 39 games as a starter, Sexton is averaging 26.8 combined points and assists (PA).

He has eclipsed 26.5 PA in 53.8% of his games started. But if we account for only games where Sexton played more than 22 minutes -- he plays 27.7 minutes as a starter and is projected to see 32.94 minutes tonight -- he has cleared 26.5 PA at a 63.6% clip.

These -122 odds imply just a 54.9% probability, so the value of this prop is pretty strong.

But beyond the value, we should be focused on Utah's injury report, which namely affects Lauri Markkanen (out; quad).

This season, Sexton has started in three games sans Markkanen. In this split, he exceeded 26.5 PA in all three games, accumulating 31.3 PA per contest.

It's a small sample to work with, but it makes sense that Sexton's production shoots up when Markkanen is out of the lineup, as Markkanen is the only player on Utah who scores more points each game than Sexton does.

The Jazz will take on the Chicago Bulls for what should be a solid matchup -- at least as far as Sexton's PA numbers are concerned.

The Bulls cede the most three-point attempts (3PA) and 3PM in the NBA. Sexton could get going from downtown, as he nets 27.0% of his points from behind the arc and shoots the three-ball at a solid 40.2% clip.

But Chicago's poor three-point D is even better news for Sexton's assist production. Utah is assisting on 88.9% of their 3PM, good for the sixth-highest percentage in the league.

Further, the Bulls let up the eighth-most assists to guards per 36 minutes while also giving up the sixth-most free-throw attempts to guards. Sexton nets 23.4% of his points from behind the stripe.

The PA opportunities seem endless for Sexton, who is in a blowup spot tonight.

Draymond Green Over 14.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

Draymond Green is averaging 16.1 PR and has outdone 14.5 PR in 63.9% of his games this season.

In games where Green has played at least 20 minutes, he has exceeded 14.5 PR at a 74.2% clip. For the year, he averages 26.2 minutes and is projected to play 30.63 minutes tonight.

These -113 odds suggest just a 53.1% probability, so it seems we are getting an awesome deal on Green's PR prop.

The Golden State Warriors will host the Milwaukee Bucks, which could mean great things for Green's output.

The Warriors play at the NBA's 11th-fastest pace while the Bucks play at the sixth-fastest pace.

Green has participated in 11 pace-up games this season. In this split, he is averaging 18.1 PR and eclipsed 14.5 PR in 10 out of 11 contests.

I believe this split speaks volumes, but it doesn't hurt that Milwaukee lets up the ninth-most points to forwards per 36 minutes. Plus, the Bucks are giving up the 12th-most paint points, which is where Green scores 50.3% of his points.

A 4.0-point spread and a 227.0 over/under show we have an exciting game in store. To add to the excitement, Draymond has been critical of this Bucks team as of late, specifically calling out Doc Rivers.

The over on Green's PR might be the best move among any of this game's props. Our projections support this, expecting Green to record 16.5 PR against the Bucks.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.