3 NBA Best Bets for Tuesday 10/29/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves

Under 221.5 (-110)

After logging 115.3 points per game (PPG) a season ago, the Dallas Mavericks' scoring is down to 110.7 PPG through three games (tied for the ninth-lowest). It reflects in offensive rating, too, as Dallas had the 8th-best mark in 2023-24 compared to 15th early in the 2024-25 season.

Chances are this talented offense will see its numbers increase, but don't expect this in Tuesday's collision against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are allowing 108.7 PPG (eighth-fewest). Additionally, Minnesota touted the best defensive rating last season and is still in the top half of the category right now. The T-Wolves' offense is also outside of the top 10 in offensive rating while averaging 110.7 PPG (tied for the ninth-lowest). Pair this with a fast start from the Mavs' defense (fifth-best defensive rating) and the under seems bound to hit.

This is checking out with various prediction models, from numberfire's game projections putting the game total at 220.7 to MasseyRatings predicting a 217 game total. The under is 2-1 for each squad, as well.

Minnesota playing at the seventh-slowest pace while both teams are in the top half for the most seconds per possession on defense only adds to backing the under.

Similar to last season, Dallas has a high shot distribution from three-point land, launching 42.8% of their shots from deep (14th-highest). Minnesota's giving up the lowest three-point shot distribution thus far. After carrying a pretty even shot distribution last season, the Timberwolves are leaning on the three-ball on offense (second-highest shot distribution). The Mavericks are surrendering the 11th-fewest made three-pointers per contest.

Numbers will surely change as everything we have right now are small sample sizes. I expect Minnesota's shot distribution to even out by attacking the rim more often, but Dallas is allowing the seventh-fewest points in the paint per game. Plus, the Mavs have relied on the three since last season, which the T-Wolves do an excellent job of shutting down three-point attacks. Give me the under for Tuesday's clash.

Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets

Nuggets -4.5 (-112)

There's some hesitance surrounding the Denver Nuggets due to their rough 1-2 start while going 0-3 against the spread (ATS). Meanwhile, the Brooklyn Nets just pulled off a surprise 115-102 win over the Milwaukee Bucks as eight-point underdogs.

While the trends and projection models (numberFire has Denver winning by about three points) are pointing to a Brooklyn cover, I'm going in the opposite direction. This is actually a pretty favorable matchup for the Nuggets, giving them the stage to shine.

We can start with shot distribution. Brooklyn carried the eighth-highest three-point shot distribution a season ago, and its currently holding the seventh-highest mark in the category. Meanwhile, Denver gave up the second-lowest three-point shot distribution in 2023-24 and have the fourth-lowest mark through three games. The Nuggets aren't going to let the Nets comfortably sit back and launch three after three.

Continuing with shooting splits, Denver loves to attack the rim with the fourth-highest distribution last season and the third-highest this season. Getting looks around the rim while defending the three well should mean success, especially when the Nugs are also forcing opponents into the second-highest mid-range jump shot distribution.

Bringing the pick home, Brooklyn has heavily leaned on Cameron Thomas (30.7 PPG) and Dennis Schroder (20.7 PPG) for scoring. The Nuggets' defensive backcourt has excelled with Jamal Murray (109.1 defensive rating) and Christian Braun (104.3 defensive rating) holding exceptional defensive ratings.

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors

Warriors Moneyline (+104)
Over 217.5 (-108)

While Sunday's eight-point loss as nine-point favorites against the Los Angeles Clippers was deflating, the Golden State Warriors are still bringing excellent value tonight as home underdogs while holding a 2-1 ATS record.

The New Orleans Pelicans aren't without a disappointing loss, either, as they lost to the Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points in their most recent game. Plus, the Pels failed to cover their last two games, which both took place on the road. In line with numberFire's projected score of 114.6-113.1 in favor of Golden State, give me the home team in this one.

As we all know, the Warriors will take a quick-paced game with plenty of shots against just about anyone. Golden State is carrying the third-quickest pace while shooting the third-most field goals per game along with the most fastbreak points per contest. The fastbreak points seem a bit out of the ordinary, for the Warriors logged the fourth-fewest per game in 2023-24, but they did attempt the third-most field goals per game last season.

New Orleans' play style thus far doesn't suggest it will try to slow this game down as they hold the 9th-quickest pace while attempting the 11th-most field goals per game. The Pels are also getting out and running with the third-most fast break points per game. The over is also looking like an enticing bet considering the pace of play we could see tonight.

Both teams will have notable absences tonight; Dejounte Murray (hand) will be out for the Pels while Stephen Curry (ankle) will not suit up. It's difficult to like Golden State in a high-scoring game if Andrew Wiggins doesn't go, as he's questionable with a back injury. The over should be a good bet regardless, but keep an eye on the injury report when it comes to the moneyline.

New Orleans' shot distribution hasn't been the best so far, holding the ninth-lowest three-point distribution while carrying the third-highest mid-range distribution. Meanwhile, the Warriors are in the top 10 of rim and three-point shot distribution; this kind of split feels far more sustainable. Plus, the Pelicans are giving up the seventh-most points in the paint per contest. After forcing the 3rd-highest mid-range shot distribution last season, Golden State is 13th in the category. The Warriors will probably be more than OK with New Orleans taking its fair share of the dreaded mid-range jumper (cover your eyes!).

Ultimately, Golden State's offensive efficiency feels far more sustainable right now, and the Pels' defense that's giving up the highest rim shot distribution doesn't yield much worry. Warriors chants could be echoing through the Chase Center with the home team pulling off an "upset."

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.