3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays for Wednesday 4/10/24

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

Finding low-salary production is one way to get a leg up on the competition in MLB DFS.

Here are some value plays to target on FanDuel for today's main slate.

Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Betting lines via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting odds as well as our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- may change after this article is published.

MLB DFS Value Plays

Allan Winans, P, Braves ($5,500)

With tonight's top starters nearly doubling Allan Winans' salary, it doesn't take much to talk me into the Atlanta Braves' righty. Winans' low salary is all the more appealing when the teams with the two highest implied totals on the slate -- Atlanta and the Texas Rangers -- are littered with high-salary bats.

Winans will make his first big league appearance of the season in the wake of Spencer Strider's injury. He pitched well enough in his lone Triple-A start this spring, going 5 2/3 innings, allowing two runs and striking out five.

He had mixed results across six starts for the Braves in 2023. Winans finished with a 5.29 ERA and 4.09 FIP, but his 3.97 xFIP suggests he got a tad unlucky -- perhaps due to a .348 BABIP. Still, he let up two or fewer runs in four of six appearances, registering a 24.1% strikeout rate, 1.39 WHIP, and 39.2% hard-hit rate.

Though he was never a big strikeout pitcher in the minors, Winans' 31.4% called plus swinging strike rate (CSW%) in the bigs offers at least some hope he can push a strikeout-per-inning average going forward.

Notably, his best start came against the New York Mets, his opponent tonight. He was awarded his only career win against New York, pitching seven scoreless innings while striking out nine.

Based on the Mets' early-season output, another strong outing certainly wouldn't surprise me. New York has averaged just 3.45 runs per game this season -- 25th in the majors and one spot behind the 1-11 Miami Marlins.

They've been especially putrid against righties. Granted, we're still dealing with small samples early in the year, but through 11 games, the Mets rank 27th in wOBA (.276), 30th in ISO (.090), and 28th in wRC+ against righties. Those are some Chicago White Sox sans Luis Robert type of numbers.

As a result, our projections are high on Winans. We project him for 30.5 FanDuel points, making him the top point-per-dollar value on the slate (5.54 FanDuel points per $1,000). That projection bakes in 5.68 strikeouts -- notable considering his strikeout prop is just 4.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

So, while Winans is far from a sure thing, he's absolutely worth a look at $5.5K, especially if you're into the high-salary bats elsewhere.

Gleyber Torres, 2B, Yankees ($3,000)

The New York Yankees have the slate's third-highest implied total (4.95), making them one of the main slate's top stacks.

With lefty Ryan Weathers on the bump for the Miami Marlins, Gleyber Torres is in a nice spot to outperform his $3K salary.

Weathers is no slouch, to be clear. The former seventh overall pick is already running a 24.4% strikeout rate through two starts, and he's up to a 96.1 MPH average fastball velocity.

The kid can pump it.

But the faster the ball comes in, the faster it leaves the yard. Weathers' quality of contact numbers -- 8.5% barrel and 39.4% hard-hit rates for his career -- aren't exactly frightening, and his average exit velocity allowed is up to 93.5 this season. He's at a 4.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP on the year, with his 4.04 SIERA suggesting those marks are spot-on.

Torres has demolished lefties throughout his career, so I'm happy to look his way tonight. The righty has a career .363 wOBA and .241 ISO against southpaws, and his OPS was at a stellar .921 in that split last season.

Though he's gotten off to a slow start in 2024, Torres' spot at the top of the order in the third best venue for right-handed power -- per Statcast Park Factors -- should give him ample chances to rack up counting stats.

Our projections have Torres going for 13.0 FanDuel points tonight, making him the top point-per-dollar value at 2B and the fifth best among all hitters (4.33 FanDuel points per $1,000).

Adam Duvall, OF, Braves ($2,600)

Already boasting the MLB's top offense (6.9 runs per game) and sporting tonight's highest implied total (5.20), Atlanta is the place to be in DFS tonight.

Though it can be hard to fit too many of the Braves' high-salary hitters in one lineup, opting for Winans at pitcher and then equipping Adam Duvall as a part of your stack frees up $3,843 apiece for the remaining seven hitters.

That's a strategy I can get behind, especially with Duvall up against lefty Jose Quintana.

Quintana was... fine in his first two starts. Across 10 1/3 innings, the 35-year-old only let up three runs (2.61 ERA) -- that's good! But he surrendered 11 hits and six walks over that span (1.65 WHIP), striking out a measly 17.0% of batters faced -- that's not so good.

Consequently, his SIERA is way up at 5.27. That's more in line with how 2023 went when Quintana ran a 4.71 SIERA and 18.8% strikeout rate. The one thing he did well last year was limit hard contact, but he's already given up 15 hard hits this season, on pace for a career-worst rate (45.5%).

With that in mind, some regression could be coming against baseball's top offense, and Duvall's prowess against lefties gives him a good chance to be a part of it.

For his career, the right-handed hitter has a .324 wOBA and .235 ISO against lefties. He's put the ball in the air at a 52.4% clip against this split -- notable considering Truist Park is a top-10 home run ballpark for right-handed hitters.

While Duvall has appeared in just four games thus far, he's gotten on base in all four and averaged 7.9 FanDuel points per game despite scoring just once and only hitting .231.

Quintana, meanwhile, has pitched to a 4.03 xFIP and allowed a .315 wOBA against righties for his career -- compared to a 3.42 xFIP and .287 wOBA against lefties.

Coupled with Duvall's own splits, it's easy to talk ourselves into Duvall as a strong standalone value and integral part of any Braves stack tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.