3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 8/12/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

Over 8.0 Runs (-108)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will kick off a four-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Freddy Peralta and Clayton Kershaw will be on the bump for their respective teams, and I think they can help bring home the over.

Let's start with Peralta. He's produced a 4.02 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and 3.52 SIERA this season. Not too shabby. But the tenured Brewer has struggled at home, letting up a .317 wOBA and 1.61 home runs per nine innings in this split, leaving him with a 4.40 ERA at American Family Field.

He surrenders a 43.0% fly-ball rate and 1.71 HR/9 to righties while the Dodgers generate a .329 wOBA (fifth-best in MLB), .429 SLG (sixth), 114 wRC+ (fourth), and .182 ISO (fourth) versus right-handed pitchers. The team averages 5.02 runs on the road, and Shohei Ohtani has ultra-short +235 home run odds.

Plus, Mookie Betts will make his long-awaited return to the lineup tonight. Betts might not be Betts right out the gate, but his presence in the batter's box is a bump for any offense.

Let's turn to Kershaw. He's made three starts this season since returning from a shoulder operation. Through 12 1/3 innings, he's allowed 9 runs, 5 earned runs, and 12 hits. He's only given up one long ball, but in his one and only road game, he lasted just 3 2/3 frames after giving up 7 runs and 3 earned runs all while striking out zero batters.

A road game against the Brewers might not be pretty. Rhys Hoskins (.205 ISO versus lefties) and Gary Sanchez (.239 ISO) are in a good spot to hit for power while William Contreras bats .324 opposite southpaws. Kershaw has yet to make it past the fifth inning, so extended play for LAD's bullpen heightens the risk for some runs. I'll side with the offenses in this one.

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

White Sox Under 2.5 Runs (+120)

The Chicago White Sox are averaging just 3.08 runs per game and have scored under 2.5 runs in 54 out of 119 games this season (45.4% of contests).

With Luis Gil set to take the mound for the opposing New York Yankees, I'm more than willing to strike on these +120 odds, which imply a 45.4% probability.

Gil has shined in his first season as a full-time starter for the Pinstripes. He enters the night with a 3.06 ERA, 3.40 xERA, 4.02 SIERA, and a 28.5% K%. As you could guess, he's got a super soft matchup against Chicago. The White Sox generate a .215 BA, .342 SLG, .270 wOBA, 72 wRC+, and .127 ISO against right-handed pitchers. All of these marks rank dead last in MLB.

The ChiSox are no better at home than on the road and have hit just 101 home runs this season, the second-fewest in MLB. Gil, meanwhile, allows only 0.76 home runs per nine innings. The lack of home run risk is intriguing. All but three batters on the White Sox have +800 odds or longer to hit a home run tonight.

With Tommy Kahnle (1.88 ERA), Jake Cousins (2.35 ERA), and closer Clay Holmes (2.81 ERA, 2.84 xERA, 2.62 SIERA, 0.38 HR/9) available out of the bullpen, the Yankees look primed to deal in this one.

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants

Braves Moneyline (-106)

Pitching will be on display at Oracle Park tonight as Chris Sale will take the mound for the visiting Atlanta Braves while Blake Snell will get the ball for the San Francisco Giants.

Sale comes in with a 2.75 ERA, 2.65 xERA, 2.60 xFIP, 2.78 SIERA, and a 32.6% K%. He leads MLB in xFIP and ranks second in xERA, SIERA, and K%. The 35-year-old touts -130 NL Cy Young Odds (shortest) and has slightly better marks on the road than at home.

San Francisco's offense as a whole is somewhat meh, but they are great against lefties, coming in with a .265 BA (fourth-best in MLB), .334 wOBA (sixth), and .174 ISO (eighth) against southpaws. With that said, Sale has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in all but three of his 21 starts, and the Braves have gone 14-7 when he takes the mound.

Heliot Ramos is the SF's most lethal bat against lefties (.542 wOBA and .835 SLG) but he has struggled with a .144 ISO and 26.6% K% across the last 30 days of play. Plus, Jorge Soler, the former Giant-turned-Brave at the trade deadline, produces a 160 wRC+, .526 SLG, and .917 OPS versus lefties. He has the shortest odds to hit a home run in this game.

The Giants strike out at a 23.5% rate against lefties (10th-highest). Sale limits opponents to just 0.56 home runs per nine innings, so I like getting the chance to side with Atlanta whenever he takes the mound.

Snell has been awesome in six starts since returning from the IL and has a 4.31 ERA, 2.74 xERA, and 3.39 xFIP on the season. The Braves, however, could get to him, as they sport a .182 ISO (fourth) and .439 SLG (eighth) versus southpaws.

Marcell Ozuna is always in a smash spot against lefties, and as mentioned, Soler could play a role in securing a win against his former team. Five out of the six players with the shortest home run odds in this one are on Atlanta. Add in that the Braves have a better bullpen than the Giants, and I'm happy to side with the road team tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.