3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 6/24/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 6/24/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-115)

At Guaranteed Rate Field, we'll see a paradoxical interleague matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers (48-31) and Chicago White Sox (21-58). In 2024, the Dodgers have won twice as many games as the White Sox, so what should we expect here?

On Monday, lefty Garrett Crochet (2.59 FIP) will get the baseball for Chicago while Los Angeles is going with fellow lefty James Paxton. Given that the "Boys in Blue" have compiled an .820 team OPS against southpaw pitching this year, I am targeting over 8.0 runs (-115 odds).

Notably, Los Angeles' lineup -- even without Mookie Betts (hand) -- has been mashing throughout the entire 2024 campaign. The Dodgers presently lead the National League in wOBA (.339), home runs (108) and total runs (398). Whether it is Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith or Teoscar Hernandez, this lineup essentially has power one through nine.

On the other side, Paxton has been one of the Dodgers' worst starters this season, owning a 5.43 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's surrendered 13 earned runs over this past five outings. Perhaps even the ChiSox can muster some success against the lefty.

numberFire is also keen on over eight for this contest on the Southside; their model is yielding an estimated 9.56 total runs for Dodgers-White Sox. That translates to a 58.9% winning likelihood for over supporters.

Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

Athletics Moneyline (+116)

For a glimpse into the bottom half to the AL West, the Oakland Athletics (29-51) and Los Angeles Angels (30-46) will be meeting for the first time this season. Still, the A's got the better of the Angels in 7 of 13 games last year.

In the remaining years that this will be a NorCal-SoCal rivalry, it's quite sad that neither franchise is competitive. However, we can use this divisional clash to our betting advantage.

On Monday in Anaheim, the projected starters are Griffin Canning and Luis Medina. Canning is currently tagged with a dismal 5.33 FIP. In that same metric, Medina (3.95 FIP) has been much more efficient for the Athletics this season.

With this series hosted at Angel Stadium, it should not be ignored that the Halos have been, arguably, the worst home team in baseball. Entering Monday, LAA shows a 12-25 record when playing in Anaheim. From there, they have an atrocious -55 run differential at home.

Oakland is obviously struggling overall, but tagged with +116 moneyline odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, I believe there is value on the A's in this matchup. After the starters, the Athletics' bullpen (3.46 ERA) is far superior to the Halos' relief group (5.20 ERA).

numberFire's MLB power rankings lists the Angels (-0.41 nERD) five spots ahead of the A's (-0.71 nERD), but that is close enough to entice a play on plus-money odds with a familiar underdog.

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Padres -1.5 (+108)

Down in the Historic Gaslamp Quarter, the Washington Nationals (38-39) are visiting the San Diego Padres (41-41). The overall records indicate these sides are close together, but if we dig deeper, there is some separation.

Off the bat, numberFire's baseball rankings have the Padres (0.64 nERD) 10th in MLB while the Nats (-0.44 nERD) are down at 23rd. From an offensive perspective, San Diego (.731 OPS) is the much more prolific club when compared to Washington (.670 OPS). Alas, that gives me confidence with the Friars on the run line (+108 odds).

The probable pitchers at Petco Park on Monday are Matt Waldron and lefty Patrick Corbin. Waldron is showing progress with the Padres in his second big-league campaign, posting a 4.02 SIERA. As for the southpaw Corbin, he's left with a 6.66 xERA at the moment. That can't be good.

Not only do I prefer San Diego in terms of today's pitching, but the Nationals' batting lineup is one of the most power-deficient in the Majors. Presently, Washington has a .130 ISO, which is the second-worst clip on the Senior Circuit; I can't say I have high hopes for them tonight in a pitcher's venue. Situated at sea level, Petco Park owns MLB's third-lowest park factor score (96).

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s (left arm) status is still unknown for Monday's bid, but I think the Friars still have enough firepower to win by two or more runs. numberFire's MLB game projections concur with that sentiment, giving the Padres a 53.03% chance to win to cover the run line.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay for any MLB game happening June 24th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.