3 Horses Who Could Win the 2025 Triple Crown

The Kentucky Derby happens at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3. It is the first leg of the American Triple Crown—and though it is not easy for a horse to win the Triple Crown even after winning the Kentucky Derby, only one horse can even pursue this prestigious series of three thoroughbred horse races after the first Saturday in May, and it’s the first horse across the wire in the Run for the Roses.

The Kentucky Derby is a challenge unlike any that the runners have ever seen. It requires the stamina to last 1 ¼ miles, a distance longer than any of the horses in the race have ever tried. It requires the ability to work out a trip in the chaos of 20 three-year-old horses, and in many cases, the ability to handle a difficult gate.

The Triple Crown events get even more difficult, with the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on the third Saturday in May, and then the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga three weeks after that. The third and final leg of the Triple Crown is usually run at Belmont Park, but with that track still under construction, the Belmont Stakes will be run one more time at Saratoga in upstate New York in 2025.

To become a Triple Crown winner, a horse needs to stay in form through that entire series, run at their best all three times, and perhaps get some good luck from a trip perspective. No wonder only thirteen horses in the history of Thoroughbred racing have become Triple Crown winners since Sir Barton in 1919, running through to American Pharoah and Justify in the 21st century.

But, of course, the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, and the journey to becoming a Triple Crown winner begins with the Kentucky Derby. And, the following horses are the ones who have the best chances to become a serious Triple Crown horse.

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1. Journalism

Often, the question of the horse most likely to win all three Triple Crown races starts with the horse most likely to win the Kentucky Derby. In 2025, that horse is Journalism.

Trained by Michael McCarthy, Journalism has been the king of a strong West Coast prep series. He was third on debut in a sprint at Santa Anita last October, but has rattled off four wins since then, meaning he is undefeated in races at a mile or more. He has won at Del Mar, Los Alamitos, and Santa Anita, meaning he can handle multiple footings.

Journalism also has the tools to handle the Kentucky Derby and the other legs of the Triple Crown. It’s easier to carve out a trip when a horse is tactically versatile, and Journalism is. He has won from a stalking spot or rallying from midpack, giving Umberto Rispoli options for where to place him in each of the races. And, he’s not a favorite who needs things easy. Though there were only five horses in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he had a troubled trip where he kept getting caught between horses.

A son of Curlin out of the Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, Journalism has Triple Crown bloodlines through and through. Sire Curlin won the Preakness and has produced Preakness winner Exaggerator and Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice. He doesn’t have a Kentucky Derby winner yet, but his sons Keen Ice and Good Magic have sired Derby winners. Uncle Mo sired Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and Belmont Stakes winner Mo Donegal. This bodes well for Journalism continuing to improve over longer distances.

All in all, there are a lot of reasons that Journalism is a credible contender to become the 14th Triple Crown champion in horse racing history.

2. Burnham Square

Burnham Square comes into the Kentucky Derby off a smart victory in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, and through that and his other prep races, he has marked himself as a serious Triple Crown contender.

Expectations for Burnham Square were modest at the beginning of his career—he debuted for a $150,000 claiming tag at Keeneland last October, finishing second in that six-furlong sprint. It was a good enough effort that he hasn’t been in for a claim since, and he has just been getting better. He graduated third time out at Gulfstream in December, going 1 1/16 miles, winning in a nine-length tour de force. He did that in stalking fashion, and then rallied from further back to win the Holy Bull (G3) next out.

Though he regressed a bit for the Fountain of Youth, he was back in sharp form for the Blue Grass. East Avenue had an uncontested lead that day and almost held on, but Burnham Square rallied from last to get up by a nose. It was an impressive effort—he reeled in a horse who was already a Grade 1 winner over the course, and no one else was able to finish as well as he was.

Looking across his career, he has won races from close to the pace, midpack, or back in the clouds early. This means he can take advantage of the likely flying pace in the Kentucky Derby, and also recalibrate his position in the pack if the pace scenarios are different in the Preakness Stakes or the Belmont Stakes.

In terms of pedigree, Burnham Square is by Liam’s Map out of the Scat Daddy mare Linda. Liam’s Map doesn’t have a Classic winner yet, but he produced the good turf router Colonel Liam. Liam’s Map himself is a son of Unbridled’s Song, sire of Classic types like Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Arrogate and Travers winner Will Take Charge. Damsire Scat Daddy did not always throw classic types, but did produce Triple Crown winner Justify. Linda herself was a middle-distance turf router, and her dam, Beautiful Noise, was a Grade 2 winner at 1 ⅛ miles on grass.

The pedigree is more of a mixed bag than some, but there are strong points, and the good form over lengthening distances is a serious positive. Between that and his tactical versatility, Burnham Square has a lot of tools to do well in the Triple Crown.

3. Sovereignty

When Bill Mott puts a maiden in a graded stakes, it warrants attention. He did just that with Sovereignty in last year’s Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs. Sovereignty won by five lengths, he looked good on the Triple Crown trail, and he gives Mott a live contender in the series of three-year-old classics.

The Street Sense was Sovereignty’s third start and his two-turn debut. He won that rallying from last in a nine-horse field, and also finished second in the Florida Derby (G1) by rallying from near the rear. However, he was able to sit just a shade closer in a shorter field in the Fountain of Youth (G2), a race he won by a hard-fought neck. Though he’s always going to be running from off the pace, it’s a positive for the later legs of the Triple Crown that Sovereignty does not have to lollygag a dozen lengths off the running.

Sovereignty is a son of Into Mischief, who has already produced Kentucky Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun. Into Mischief’s son Goldencents also sired Derby winner Mystik Dan. Not all of his classy progeny are so long-winded, but he can produce any kind, and enough stamina on the underside of the pedigree can give him a classic horse.

Sovereignty is out of the unraced Bernardini mare Crowned. Bernardini had Triple Crown success of his own, as he won the 2006 Preakness Stakes. He was also a well-known source of dirt stamina. He is the broodmare sire of Travers winner Catholic Boy—as well as of the aforementioned turf router Colonel Liam, though he is more of a dirt influence in general. And, Crowned is out of the Empire Maker mare Mushka, a Grade 1-winning dirt router.

His pedigree, his ability to consistently fire, and the fact that he is more tractable than really deep closers all bode well, and make Sovereignty a serious Triple Crown contender.

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