3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 6/26/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Royce Lewis To Hit a Home Run (+320)

The Minnesota Twins have a solid 4.65 implied run total tonight and a juicy matchup for some long balls.

They are on the road to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks, who will have Ryne Nelson on the mound tonight, which should cause our eyes to light up.

Nelson has struggled big time this year to the tune of a .567 SLG, 4.54 xFIP, 0.96 HR/9, 45.7% hard-contact rate, and 36.2% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters.

I love seeing a high hard contact rate, which puts him in danger versus elite hitters.

That brings me to Royce Lewis, who comes in with a 217 wRC+, .478 wOBA, .510 ISO, 43.6% fly-ball rate, and 43.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. This is why we've seen him hit 8 of his 10 home runs in this split.

I'll add, Lewis To Record an RBI (+100), too.

Will Smith To Hit a Home Run (+500)

As usual, the Los Angeles Dodgers have several options to consider for a homer on a nightly basis.

A 4.78 implied run total is no surprise for the Dodgers, who are set to take on Erick Fedde from the Chicago White Sox.

Fedde is due for a bit of negative regression when it comes to home runs versus right-handed hitters, so let's dive in.

This season, he's allowed a .347 SLG, 40.9% fly-ball rate, and 0.77 HR/9 to righties.

Against lefties, he's allowed a .389 SLG, 32.2% fly-ball rate, and 1.14 HR/9.

These come from identical inning sample sizes and don't line up. He's allowing fewer home runs to righties despite having a higher fly-ball rate.

That is going to flip at some point and Will Smith has plenty of power to get that ball rolling.

This season, Smith has a 94 wRC+, .154 ISO, 49.3% fly-ball rate, and 32.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. In just this series versus the White Sox, we've seen Smith hit multiple balls over 100 mph exit velocity and over 330 feet, but none of them go for home runs.

He's crushing the ball and Fedde is due for that regression. I'll add, Smith To Record an RBI (+145), too.

Tyler O'Neill To Hit a Home Run (+390)

Lastly, we turn to Beantown for a homer.

The Boston Red Sox have the offense rolling in recent games and they can certainly keep that going tonight versus Yariel Rodriguez of the Toronto Blue Jays.

It should be noted that this is Rodriguez's first year in the majors, and he only has a 16.2 inning sample size. He missed some time on the Injured List, giving us a limited set of stats to look at.

However, in this time, he's allowed a .579 SLG, .448 wOBA, 5.28 xFIP, 2.08 HR/9, 35.7% fly-ball rate, and 42.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters.

Of course, I expect some of these numbers to even out as the sample size increases, but if he's struggling right now, he's worth targeting.

We turn to Tyler O'Neill, who's rocking a 106 wRC+, .326 wOBA, .243 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 32.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. It's no surprise to see that he's crushed 10 of his 16 homers in this split.

I'll add, O'Neill To Record an RBI (+115), too.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game on June 26th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.