MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 6/12/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Pete Alonso To Hit a Home Run (+390)

With plenty of power, Pete Alonso is always a threat for a home run.

The New York Mets are a bit up and down overall but Alonso has the power to jump on any matchup. That is what he should be able to do tonight versus Braxton Garrett of the Miami Marlins.

Garrett has a bit of a smaller sample size this season due to an injury, so we'll look back to last season. In 2023, Garrett allowed a .448 SLG, 1.26 HR/9, 43.7% hard-contact rate, 30.2% fly-ball rate, and 15.7% HR/FB ratio versus righties.

When it comes to Alonso, he's rocking a 132 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .227 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, 37.5% hard-contact rate, and 16.7% HR/FB versus left-handed pitchers.

It's all good news for Alonso, so I'll add, Alonso To Record an RBI (+160), too.

Bryce Harper To Hit a Home Run (+340)

As one of the best home run hitters in the league, Bryce Harper can always be considered for a long ball.

I don't often look to Harper for a home run and it's usually due to his odds. We normally see Harper around +280 to +300, so when we get him at +340, he's absolutely worth a look.

He has immense power with a 154 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .265 ISO, 39.8% fly-ball rate, 46.6% hard-contact rate, and 24.4% HR/FB versus right-handed pitchers. Tonight, he's at Fenway Park, which is one of the best hitter's parks in the league, a nice added boost.

Harper is set to face Nick Pivetta, who has allowed a .371 SLG, 1.86 HR/9, 44.9% fly-ball rate, 38.8% hard-contact rate, and 18.2% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed hitters. It's essentially an ideal matchup for Harper to knock one over the fence, so I'll add, Harper To Record an RBI (+135), too.

Anthony Santander To Hit a Home Run (+430)

The Baltimore Orioles continue to pile up the home runs and tonight should be no different.

With one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league, Baltimore should be a regular target for home run props.

Tonight, they are taking on the Atlanta Braves, who will have Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound. Schwellenbach was just called up and has two starts under his belt for a total of 9.2 innings pitched in the MLB.

The sample size is so small that we can't derive any real information from it. I'm simply opting to side with an elite home-run-hitting offense over a very young and unproven pitcher.

This brings me to Anthony Santander, who comes in with a 112 wRC+, .322 wOBA, .256 ISO, 57.5% fly-ball rate, 30.8% hard-contact rate, and 13.1% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers. This is has led to Santander hitting 11 of his 14 homers against righties, making it the clear split to target.

As usual, I'll add, Santander To Record an RBI (+150), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.