3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Wednesday 4/24/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Corey Seager To Hit a Home Run (+330)

The Texas Rangers have a 4.63 implied run total tonight against the Seattle Mariners and we could see the ball flying tonight.

A good matchup and plenty of power is what we see for several hitters in the Rangers' lineup and I have my eyes on Corey Seager. He will be up against Bryce Miller, who struggled against lefty hitters in 2023.

Last season, Miller allowed a .558 SLG, .387 wOBA, 1.91 HR/9, 5.22 xFIP, 46.5% fly-ball rate, and 39.0% hard-contact rate versus lefties. Woof. That's about as bad as you will see and it's amazing for Seager.

In 2023, Seager crushed righties with a 183 wRC+, .439 wOBA, .333 ISO, 40.2% fly-ball rate, and 49.8% hard-contact rate. It's a dream matchup as you read about, so I'll add Seager To Record an RBI (+125), too.

Vinnie Pasquantino To Hit a Home Run (+560)

With some nice hitting weather, the Kansas City Royals could knock a few long balls tonight.

A 4.46 implied run total is a good jumping-off point for one of the best home-run-hitting lineups in the league, along with a good matchup.

They are up against the Toronto Blue Jays, who will have Yariel Rodriguez on the mound tonight.

Rodriguez is in his first MLB season with only 7.2 innings pitched along with 6.1 innings pitched at Triple-A earlier this year. Prior to that, he was pitching in Japan and ultimately, is an unproven pitcher. Rodriguez has some strikeout potential but we should look to trust the hitter over a young pitcher.

This leads me to Vinnie Pasquantino, who is crushing righties to start the season with a 152 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .270 ISO, 43.6% fly-ball rate, and 34.5% hard-contact rate. The Royals are top five in the league for home runs hit this season and can add to that total tonight. Of course, I'll look to Pasquantino To Record an RBI (+130), too.

Matt Olson To Hit a Home Run (+470)

With intriguing odds, Matt Olson is worth considering for a homer tonight.

Olson was the home run king last season with 54 home runs and with his odds being up at +470, he has my eye tonight.

Is Olson off to as hot of a start this season as he was last year? No. That's clear but we also wouldn't be getting Olson at +470 for a homer if he was crushing the ball as he did in 2023.

He still comes in with a 113 wRC+, .216 ISO, 38.9% hard-contact rate, and 30.6% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.

Tonight, he's up against Sixto Sanchez, who only 7.1 innings pitched this year, which is his first MLB action since 2020. He was a highly-rated prospect but it's been a few years since that and Olson is a proven power hitter in the middle of an elite lineup.

I'll buy into Olson at +470 tonight and To Record an RBI (+120), too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.