MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Thursday 6/13/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Ryan Jeffers To Hit a Home Run (+520)

The Minnesota Twins have a 4.75 implied run total and some absolutely beautiful hitting weather tonight.

Hotter temperatures and wind blowing out is a big boost for hitters and it's even better when we see a bad pitcher on the other side.

That pitcher would be Luis Medina of the Oakland Athletics, who comes in allowing a .381 SLG, 5.46 xFIP, 38.9% fly-ball rate, and 44.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. However, he has yet to allow a home run to a righty this year.

If we look back to last season, Medina allowed a nearly identical 38.5% fly-ball rate and 37.4% hard-contact rate, which resulted in 1.59 HR/9.

With this season's stats coming from a smaller sample size, I'm not concerned with the fact he hasn't allowed a homer when the fly-ball and hard-contact rates tell the real story.

We turn to Ryan Jeffers, who comes in with a 134 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .252 ISO, 40.0% fly-ball rate, 33.0% hard-contact rate, and 19.0% HR/FB ratio versus righties.

He's hit 8 of his 12 homers in this split, so we'll stick with what works.

Cody Bellinger To Hit a Home Run (+470)

Next up, we turn to the Chicago Cubs visiting the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Rays will have Taj Bradley on the bump tonight and while he can certainly rack up the strikeouts, he also struggles with too many fly balls and too much hard contact.

This season versus lefties, Bradley has allowed a .500 SLG, .346 wOBA, 2.08 HR/9, 44.2% fly-ball rate, and 48.8% hard-contact rate.

Those are numbers we can certainly target, which brings me to Cody Bellinger.

He's having a solid year at the plate with a 112 wRC+, .325 wOBA, .215 ISO, 53.5% fly-ball rate, and 32.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

We can work with that, and it puts Bellinger in a good spot to go deep tonight.

Joc Pederson To Hit a Home Run (+360)

Finally, let's turn to Joc Pederson of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Joc Jams is a lefty and is normally only in play when they are a facing a right-handed pitcher as they are tonight.

That pitcher would be Griffin Canning, who is simply not good.

This year, Canning has allowed a .555 SLG, .396 wOBA, 5.18 xFIP, 2.23 HR/9, 41.5% fly-ball rate, 37.1% hard-contact rate, and 17.6% HR/FB ratio versus lefties.

Those are among the worst numbers you will find in the majors, which puts Pederson in a great spot.

Pederson comes in with 140 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .187 ISO, 37.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.0% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitchers.

It's great from top to bottom for Pederson and the Diamondbacks' offense tonight.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.