Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 5/20/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Riley Greene +490
• Wilyer Abreu +490
• Mike Trout +330

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Guardians at Tigers, 6:41 p.m. ET

The wind is blowing out to right today in Detroit, and Riley Greene has a friendly matchup with Tanner Bibee.

Bibee is having a weird year, and left-handed hitters have been a big issue for him -- with Bibee allowing a 43.2% fly-ball rate and 1.61 home runs per nine innings in the split.

Greene popped 36 dingers last year, and while he's left the yard only four times so far this season, he's having a career-best campaign overall, mashing his way to a .413 wOBA with a 13.8% walk rate -- both of which are career-high clips.

The only thing holding Greene back in the HR department is his 9.5% home-run-to-fly-ball rate, which is well below his 17.5% career mark. That'll level out over time, and it should lead to more Greene jacks.

Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Red Sox at Royals, 7:41 p.m. ET

Kansas City Royals righty Michael Wacha checks a lot of boxes as far as what I'm looking for in pitchers to pick on.

Wacha has a 4.51 SIERA and 18.4% K rate since the start of last season, so he's not missing many bats. He lets up a 43.9% fly-ball rate, too, and left-handed hitters have tagged him for a 46.7% fly-ball rate this season.

All of that leads me to Wilyer Abreu. A left-handed hitter, Abreu is producing a career-best .358 wOBA overall. Five of his six HRs have come against right-handed hurlers, and in that split, he owns a 40.4% hard-hit rate and 47.5% fly-ball rate. He's also been better on the road (.386 wOBA) than at home (.324).

Once Wacha is out of the game, Abreu will see a KC bullpen that has the ninth-worst reliever xFIP.

Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Athletics at Angels, 9:39 p.m. ET

Mike Trout is having an excellent season, and he's in a good spot today against Aaron Civale.

Trout has a .390 wOBA and .418 expected wOBA. Both his hard-hit rate (44.4%) and fly-ball rate (53.0%) are at career-best levels, and he's got 12 homers already. In righty-righty matchups, Trout has recorded a .387 wOBA, 44.7% hard-hit rate and 49.4% fly-ball rate.

Civale has struggled in 2026, generating a 4.69 SIERA and 17.2% K rate. Right-handed hitters have a 38.6% hard-hit rate and 50.9% fly-ball rate against him.

The good times can keep rolling once Civale departs as the A's are 11th-worst in bullpen xFIP.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.